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Government Policy Response to War-Expenditure Shocks

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Listed author(s):
  • Martin Fernando M.

    ()

    (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

Abstract

The U.S. has experienced three episodes in which public expenditure temporarily increased to very high levels: the Civil War, World War I and World War II. These wars share a set of stylized facts regarding the behavior of tax revenue, government debt, primary deficit, inflation and output. I present a theory of government policy determination, whose primary ingredients are intertemporal distortion-smoothing and limited commitment, that matches these regularities qualitatively and displays empirically plausible quantitative behavior.

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Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 12 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 1-40

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:12:y:2012:i:1:n:25
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  1. Fernando M. Martin, 2013. "Government Policy In Monetary Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(1), pages 185-217, 02.
  2. Berentsen, Aleksander & Camera, Gabriele & Waller, Christopher, 2007. "Money, credit and banking," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 171-195, July.
  3. Fernando Martin, 2009. "A Positive Theory of Government Debt," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(4), pages 608-631, October.
  4. Martin, Fernando M., 2011. "On the joint determination of fiscal and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 132-145, March.
  5. Aruoba, S. Boragan & Chugh, Sanjay K., 2010. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy when money is essential," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(5), pages 1618-1647, September.
  6. Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2005. "A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 463-484, June.
  7. Shin, Yongseok, 2007. "Managing the maturity structure of government debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1565-1571, September.
  8. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
  9. S. Rao Aiyagari & Albert Marcet & Thomas J. Sargent & Juha Seppala, 2002. "Optimal Taxation without State-Contingent Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(6), pages 1220-1254, December.
  10. Marcet, Albert & Scott, Andrew, 2009. "Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 473-501, March.
  11. Williamson, Stephen & Wright, Randall, 2010. "New Monetarist Economics: Models," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 25-96 Elsevier.
  12. Aleksander Berentsen & Christopher Waller, 2008. "Outside Versus Inside Bonds," IEW - Working Papers 372, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  13. Ellen R. M cG rattan & Lee E. Ohanian, 2010. "Does Neoclassical Theory Account For The Effects Of Big Fiscal Shocks? Evidence From World War Ii," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(2), pages 509-532, 05.
  14. Chari, V V & Christiano, Lawrence J & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1991. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Some Recent Results," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 519-539, August.
  15. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
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Cited by:

  1. Martin, Fernando M., 2015. "Debt, inflation and central bank independence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 129-150.
  2. Fernando M. Martin, 2013. "Government Policy In Monetary Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(1), pages 185-217, 02.
  3. Chao Gu & Han Han & Randall Wright, 2016. "The Effects of Monetary Policy and Other Announcements," Working Papers 1621, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.

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