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Government Policy Response to War-Expenditure Shocks

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  • Martin Fernando M.

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

Abstract

The U.S. has experienced three episodes in which public expenditure temporarily increased to very high levels: the Civil War, World War I and World War II. These wars share a set of stylized facts regarding the behavior of tax revenue, government debt, primary deficit, inflation and output. I present a theory of government policy determination, whose primary ingredients are intertemporal distortion-smoothing and limited commitment, that matches these regularities qualitatively and displays empirically plausible quantitative behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Fernando M., 2012. "Government Policy Response to War-Expenditure Shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-40, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:12:y:2012:i:1:n:25
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fernando M. Martin, 2013. "Government Policy In Monetary Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(1), pages 185-217, February.
    2. Marcet, Albert & Scott, Andrew, 2009. "Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 473-501, March.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    4. Williamson, Stephen & Wright, Randall, 2010. "New Monetarist Economics: Models," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.),Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 25-96, Elsevier.
    5. Berentsen, Aleksander & Camera, Gabriele & Waller, Christopher, 2007. "Money, credit and banking," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 171-195, July.
    6. Fernando Martin, 2009. "A Positive Theory of Government Debt," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(4), pages 608-631, October.
    7. Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2005. "A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 463-484, June.
    8. Aleksander Berentsen & Christopher Waller, 2008. "Outside Versus Inside Bonds," IEW - Working Papers 372, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    9. Ellen R. M cG rattan & Lee E. Ohanian, 2010. "Does Neoclassical Theory Account For The Effects Of Big Fiscal Shocks? Evidence From World War Ii," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(2), pages 509-532, May.
    10. Martin, Fernando M., 2011. "On the joint determination of fiscal and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 132-145, March.
    11. Chari, V V & Christiano, Lawrence J & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1991. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Some Recent Results," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 519-539, August.
    12. Aruoba, S. Boragan & Chugh, Sanjay K., 2010. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy when money is essential," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(5), pages 1618-1647, September.
    13. Shin, Yongseok, 2007. "Managing the maturity structure of government debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1565-1571, September.
    14. S. Rao Aiyagari & Albert Marcet & Thomas J. Sargent & Juha Seppala, 2002. "Optimal Taxation without State-Contingent Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(6), pages 1220-1254, December.
    15. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
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    Cited by:

    1. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2019. "Episodes of war and peace in an estimated open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 203-249.
    2. Martin, Fernando M., 2015. "Debt, inflation and central bank independence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 129-150.
    3. Fernando M. Martin, 2016. "The Value of Constraints on Discretionary Government Policy," Working Papers 2016-19, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 15 Feb 2017.
    4. Fernando M. Martin, 2013. "Government Policy In Monetary Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(1), pages 185-217, February.
    5. Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem, 2014. "War, Taxes and Trade," Working Papers 2014-29, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    6. Chao Gu & Han Han & Randall Wright, 2016. "The Effects of Monetary Policy and Other Announcements," Working Papers 1621, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    7. Fernando Martin, 2019. "How to Starve the Beast: Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules," 2019 Meeting Papers 1181, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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