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Episodes of War and Peace in an Estimated Open Economy Model

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  • Stéphane Auray

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE ParisTech - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Aurélien Eyquem

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We analyze the effects of world wars on the macroeconomic dynamics of the U.S., France, Germany, and the UK, by means of an estimated open-economy model. The model allows wars to affect the economy through capital depreciation, sovereign default, a military draft, household preferences, and spillovers on other exogenous processes (productivity, investment, trade, policy variables). If the bulk of fluctuations during war episodes can be explained by the rise in government spending in the U.S., other factors are crucial in other countries. We also discuss the size and state-dependence of public spending multipliers, and a counterfactual welfare exercise.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem, 2017. "Episodes of War and Peace in an Estimated Open Economy Model," Working Papers halshs-01467219, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01467219
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01467219
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    Cited by:

    1. Aloui, Rym & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2019. "Spending multipliers with distortionary taxes: Does the level of public debt matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 275-293.
    2. Maria Alina Carataș & Elena Cerasela Spătariu, 2019. "Global Economy Under Trade War," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 63-66, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fluctuations; War; Trade; Taxes; Public Debt; Bayesian estimations; Multipliers; Welfare;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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