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Stochastic Depreciation and the Business Cycle Puzzle

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Abstract

We study a version of the neoclassical growth model in which shocks to both aggregate productivity and the depreciation of capital generate fluctuations around the steady-state growth path. Depreciation shocks induce an inverse comovement between average labor productivity and hours worked. When the model is calibrated to U.S. data, it generates a correlation between productivity and hours which is significantly closer to the observed value than that of standard real business cycle models. Furthermore, the addition of depreciation shocks does not cause a deterioration of the predictions of the model concerning other comovements. Nous étudions une version du modèle de croissance néoclassique dans lequel l'économie est assujettie à deux types de chocs. Des chocs agrégés de productivité ainsi que des chocs spécifiques sur le taux de dépréciation du capital génèrent des fluctuations autour du sentier de croissance équilibrée. Ces chocs de dépréciation induisent une corrélation négative entre la productivité moyenne de travail et le nombre d'heures travaillés. Pour une calibration du modèle compatible avec les données américaines, nous obtenons une corrélation heures-emploi qui est significativement plus près de la valeur observée que ce n'est le cas pour les modèles réels standards du cycle. De plus, l'ajout de chocs de dépréciation n'occasionne pas de détérioration des prédictions du modèle quant à d'autres co-mouvements.

Suggested Citation

  • Steve Ambler & Alain Paquet, 1992. "Stochastic Depreciation and the Business Cycle Puzzle," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 8, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  • Handle: RePEc:cre:crefwp:8
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    Cited by:

    1. Dueker, Michael J. & Fischer, Andreas M., 2003. "Fixing Swiss potholes: The importance and cyclical nature of improvements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 409-415, June.
    2. Furlanetto, Francesco & Seneca, Martin, 2014. "New Perspectives On Depreciation Shocks As A Source Of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(06), pages 1209-1233, September.
    3. Felicitas NOWAK-LEHMANN D. & Inma MARTÍNEZ-ZARZOSO & Dierk HERZER & Stephan KLASEN & Axel DREHER, "undated". "Foreign Aid and Its Effect on Per-Capita Income (Growth) in Recipient Countries: Pitfalls and Findings from a Time Series Perspective," EcoMod2010 259600121, EcoMod.
    4. Kollman, R., 1996. "The Exchange Rate in a Dynamic-Optimizing Current Account Model with Nominal Rigidities: A Quantitative Investigation," Cahiers de recherche 9614, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    5. Jasmina Hasanhodzic & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2013. "Generational Risk - Is It a Big Deal?: Simulating an 80-Period OLG Model with Aggregate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 19179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Inwon Jang & Hyeon-seung Huh & Richard Wong, 2008. "Optimal capital investment under uncertainty: An extension," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(4), pages 1-7.
    7. Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem & Fréderic Jouneau-Sion, 2011. "Wars as Large Depreciation Shocks," Working Papers 2012-30, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    8. Dueker Michael & Fischer Andreas & Dittmar Robert, 2007. "Stochastic Capital Depreciation and the Co-movement of Hours and Productivity," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-24, January.
    9. Ambler, Steve & Paquet, Alain, 1996. "Fiscal spending shocks, endogenous government spending, and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 237-256.
    10. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007 Elsevier.
    11. Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hopp�, "undated". "Is There a Golden Rule for the Stochastic Solow Growth Model ?," IEW - Working Papers 033, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    12. Blankenau, William & Ayhan Kose, M. & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "Can world real interest rates explain business cycles in a small open economy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 867-889, June.
    13. Dueker, Michael & Fischer, Andreas M, 2002. "Fixing Swiss Potholes: The Importance of Improvements," CEPR Discussion Papers 3159, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. George Bitros, 2010. "The theorem of proportionality in contemporary capital theory: An assessment of its conceptual foundations," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 367-401, December.
    15. Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem, 2016. "Episodes of War and Peace in an Estimated Open Economy Model," Working Papers 2016-01, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    16. Rodrigo Suescún, 1995. "Growth, Welfare Costs And Aggregate Fluctuations In Economies With Monetary Taxation," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002775, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    17. Coenen, Günter, 1998. "Intertemporal effects of fiscal policy in an RBC model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1998,02e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Burda, Michael C. & Severgnini, Battista, 2014. "Solow residuals without capital stocks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 154-171.
    19. Marek Kapička, 2012. "How Important Is Technology Capital for the United States?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 218-248, April.
    20. Bitros, George C., 2009. "The Theorem of Proportionality in Mainstream Capital Theory: An Assessment of its Conceptual Foundations," MPRA Paper 17436, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Collard, Fabrice & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 2000. "Maintenance, Utilization, and Depreciation along the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 2477, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Beatriz Rumbos & Leonardo Auernheimer, 2001. "Endogenous capital utilization in a neoclassical growth model," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 29(2), pages 121-134, June.
    23. M. Ayhan Kose & Bill Blankenau & Kei-Mu Yi, 1999. "World Real Interest Rates and Business Cycles in Open Economies: a Multiple Shock Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1232, Society for Computational Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real business cycles; labor productivity; depreciation;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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