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Generational Risk--Is it a Big Deal?: Simulating an 80-Period OLG Model With Aggregate Shocks

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  • Laurence Kotlikoff

    (Boston University)

  • Jasmina Hasanhodzic

    (Boston University)

Abstract

We calibrate and simulate 80, 40, and 20-period OLG models with aggregate shocks to assess generational risk. We overcome the curse of dimensionality by building on the Judd, Maliar, and Maliar algorithm, which limits a model's solution to its ergodic states, with no reliance on sparse grids, state-variable aggregation, or local approximations. We find that intrinsic generational risk is quite small, that government policies can produce generational risk, and that bond markets can share generational risk, including risks generated by policy. Our results hold with rare disasters, high risk aversion, persistent shocks, and stochastic depreciation.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurence Kotlikoff & Jasmina Hasanhodzic, 2014. "Generational Risk--Is it a Big Deal?: Simulating an 80-Period OLG Model With Aggregate Shocks," 2014 Meeting Papers 627, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed014:627
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Generational Risk–Is It a Big Deal?: Simulating an 80-Period OLG Model with Aggregate Shocks
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2013-05-30 20:12:48

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Harenberg & Alexander Ludwig, 2019. "Idiosyncratic Risk, Aggregate Risk, And The Welfare Effects Of Social Security," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(2), pages 661-692, May.
    2. Nick Draper & André Nibbelink & Johannes Uhde, 2013. "An Assessment of Alternatives for the Dutch First Pension Pillar, The Design of Pension Schemes," CPB Discussion Paper 259.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Daniel Harenberg & Alexander Ludwig, "undated". "Social Security and the Interactions Between Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Risk," Working Papers ETH-RC-14-002, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    4. Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar & John B. Taylor & Inna Tsener, 2020. "A tractable framework for analyzing a class of nonstationary Markov models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(4), pages 1289-1323, November.
    5. Arellano, Cristina & Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei & Tsyrennikov, Viktor, 2016. "Envelope condition method with an application to default risk models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 436-459.
    6. Daniel Harenberg & Alexander Ludwig, 2015. "Social security in an analytically tractable overlapping generations model with aggregate and idiosyncratic risks," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(4), pages 579-603, August.
    7. Seth G. Benzell & Eugene Goryunov & Maria Kazakova & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Guillermo LaGarda & Kristina Nesterova & Andrey Zubarev, 2015. "Simulating Russia’s and Other Large Economies’ Challenging and Interconnected Transitions," NBER Working Papers 21269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Michael Reiter, 2015. "Solving OLG Models with Asset Choice," 2015 Meeting Papers 1509, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Laurence Kotlikoff, 2013. "The US Fiscal Cliff – When Economists Recklessly Endanger the Economy," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(2), pages 03-08, August.
    10. Nick Draper & André Nibbelink & Johannes Uhde, 2013. "An Assessment of Alternatives for the Dutch First Pension Pillar, The Design of Pension Schemes," CPB Discussion Paper 259, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    11. Reiter, Michael, 2015. "Solving OLG Models with Many Cohorts, Asset Choice and Large Shocks," Economics Series 320, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    12. Nick Draper & André Nibbelink & Johannes Uhde, 2015. "An Assessment of Alternatives for the Dutch First Pension Pillar System," De Economist, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 281-302, September.
    13. Seth G. Benzell & Eugene Goryunov & Maria Kazakova & Guillermo Lagarda & Kristina Nesterova & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, "undated". "Simulating Russia’s and Other Large Economies’ Challenging and Interconnected Transitions," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-274, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    14. Laurence Kotlikoff, 2013. "The US Fiscal Cliff – When Economists Recklessly Endanger the Economy," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(02), pages 03-08, August.
    15. Serguei Maliar & John Taylor & Lilia Maliar, 2016. "The Impact of Alternative Transitions to Normalized Monetary Policy," 2016 Meeting Papers 794, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Jasmina Hasanhodzic & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2019. "Valuing Government Obligations When Markets Are Incomplete," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(7), pages 1815-1855, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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