IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/6972.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Political Intergenerational Risk Sharing

Author

Listed:
  • D'Amato, Marcello
  • Galasso, Vincenzo

Abstract

In a stochastic two-period OLG model, featuring an aggregate shock to the economy, ex-ante optimality requires intergenerational risk sharing. We compare the level of time-consistent intergenerational risk sharing chosen by a social planner and by office seeking politicians. In the political setting, the transfer of resources across generations — a PAYG pension system — is determined as a Markov equilibrium of a probabilistic voting game. Negative shocks represented by low realized returns on the risky asset induce politicians to compensate the old through a PAYG system. Unless the young are crucial to win the election, this political system generates more intergenerational risk sharing than the (time consistent) social optimum. In particular, these transfers are more persistent and less responsive to the realization of the shock than optimal. This is because politicians anticipate their current transfers to the elderly to be compensated through offsetting transfers by future politicians, and thus have an incentive to overspend. Perhaps surprisingly, aging increases the socially optimal transfer but makes politicians less likely to overspend, by making it more costly for future politicians to compensate the current young.

Suggested Citation

  • D'Amato, Marcello & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2008. "Political Intergenerational Risk Sharing," CEPR Discussion Papers 6972, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6972
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=6972
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marco Battaglini & Stephen Coate, 2008. "A Dynamic Theory of Public Spending, Taxation, and Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 201-236, March.
    2. Matsen, Egil & Thogersen, Oystein, 2004. "Designing social security - a portfolio choice approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 883-904, August.
    3. John Hassler & José V. Rodríguez Mora & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2003. "The Survival of the Welfare State," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 87-112, March.
    4. Antonio Rangel & Richard Zeckhauser, 2001. "Can Market and Voting Institutions Generate Optimal Intergenerational Risk Sharing?," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 113-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Enders, Walter & Lapan, Harvey E, 1982. "Social Security Taxation and Intergenerational Risk Sharing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 23(3), pages 647-658, October.
    6. Gonzalez-Eiras, Marti­n & Niepelt, Dirk, 2008. "The future of social security," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 197-218, March.
    7. Robert Holzmann & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2001. "New Ideas about Old Age Security : Toward Sustainable Pension Systems in the 21st Century," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13857, December.
    8. Gabrielle Demange, 2002. "On optimality in intergenerational risk sharing," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 20(1), pages 1-27.
    9. Gottardi, Piero & Kubler, Felix, 2011. "Social security and risk sharing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1078-1106, May.
    10. Shiller, Robert J., 1999. "Social security and institutions for intergenerational, intragenerational, and international risk-sharing," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 165-204, June.
    11. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka & Phillip Swagel, 2002. "The Aging Population and the Size of the Welfare State," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 900-918, August.
    12. Storesletten, Kjetil & Telmer, Chris I. & Yaron, Amir, 1999. "The risk-sharing implications of alternative social security arrangements," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 213-259, June.
    13. Marina Azzimonti Renzo, 2004. "On the dynamic inefficiency of governments," 2004 Meeting Papers 228, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2007. "Intergenerational Risk Sharing in the Spirit of Arrow, Debreu, and Rawls, with Applications to Social Security Design," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 523-547, August.
    15. Olovsson, Conny, 2004. "The Welfare Gains of Improving Risk Sharing in Social Security," Seminar Papers 728, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    16. De Menil, Georges & Murtin, Fabrice & Sheshinski, Eytan, 2006. "Planning for the optimal mix of paygo tax and funded savings," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 1-25, March.
    17. Michele Boldrin & Juan J. Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno & Franco Peracchi, "undated". "The future of pension systems in Europe. A reappraisal," Working Papers 99-08, FEDEA.
    18. Bodie, Zvi & Shoven, John B. (ed.), 1983. "Financial Aspects of the United States Pension System," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226062815, July.
    19. Stephen Morris & Stephen Coate, 1999. "Policy Persistence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1327-1336, December.
    20. Conde-Ruiz, J. Ignacio & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2004. "The macroeconomics of early retirement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 1849-1869, August.
    21. Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Social Security and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 7830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Paola Profeta, 2007. "The Redistributive Design of Social Security Systems," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 686-712, April.
    23. repec:cdl:ucsbec:03-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Dirk Krueger & Felix Kubler, 2006. "Pareto-Improving Social Security Reform when Financial Markets are Incomplete!?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 737-755, June.
    25. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Vincenzo Galasso, 2003. "Early Retirement," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 12-36, January.
    26. Hassler, John & Storesletten, Kjetil & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2007. "Democratic public good provision," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 127-151, March.
    27. Gabrielle Demange, 2009. "On Sustainable Pay‐as‐You‐Go Contribution Rules," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 11(4), pages 493-527, August.
    28. E. S. Phelps & R. A. Pollak, 1968. "On Second-Best National Saving and Game-Equilibrium Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 185-199.
    29. Gordon, Roger H. & Varian, Hal R., 1988. "Intergenerational risk sharing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 185-202, November.
    30. Simonovits, Andras, 2007. "Can population ageing imply a smaller welfare state?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 534-541, June.
    31. Galasso, Vincenzo & Profeta, Paola, 2007. "How does ageing affect the welfare state?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 554-563, June.
    32. Georges Casamatta & Helmuth Cremer & Pierre Pestieau, 2000. "The Political Economy of Social Security," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 503-522, September.
    33. Perotti, Enrico & Schwienbacher, Armin, 2009. "The political origin of pension funding," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 384-404, July.
    34. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1998. "Intergenerational Redistribution with Short-Lived Governments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(450), pages 1299-1329, September.
    35. Paul Klein & Per Krusell & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2008. "Time-Consistent Public Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 789-808.
    36. Zvi Bodie & John B. Shoven, 1983. "Financial Aspects of the United States Pension System," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bodi83-1, December.
    37. Disney, Richard, 2007. "Population ageing and the size of the welfare state: Is there a puzzle to explain?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 542-553, June.
    38. Bohn, Henning, 2009. "Intergenerational risk sharing and fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 805-816, September.
    39. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1997. "Financial Markets, Intermediaries, and Intertemporal Smoothing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(3), pages 523-546, June.
    40. Song, Zheng, 2008. "Persistent Ideology and the Determination of Public Policies over Time," MPRA Paper 10364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Bohn, Henning, 1998. "Risk Sharing in a Stochastic Overlapping Generations Economy," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt9r2809f0, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    42. Bossi, Luca, 2008. "Intergenerational risk shifting through social security and bailout politics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2240-2268, July.
    43. Vincenzo Galasso, 2008. "The Political Future of Social Security in Aging Societies," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026257246x, December.
    44. D'Amato, Marcello & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2002. "Aggregate Risk, Political Constraints and Social Security Design," CEPR Discussion Papers 3330, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    45. Dirk Krueger & Felix Kubler, 2002. "Intergenerational Risk-Sharing via Social Security when Financial Markets Are Incomplete," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 407-410, May.
    46. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 2007. "Aging population: The complex effect of fiscal leakages on the politico-economic equilibrium," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 564-575, June.
    47. Zheng Song, 2012. "Persistent Ideology And The Determination Of Public Policy Over Time," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(1), pages 175-202, February.
    48. Robert C. Merton, 1983. "On the Role of Social Security as a Means for Efficient Risk Sharing in an Economy Where Human Capital Is Not Tradable," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Aspects of the United States Pension System, pages 325-358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    49. Bernheim, B. Douglas & Ray, Debraj, 1989. "Markov perfect equilibria in altruistic growth economies with production uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 195-202, February.
    50. John Y. Campbell & Martin Feldstein, 2001. "Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number camp01-1, December.
    51. Andrzej Nowak, 2006. "On perfect equilibria in stochastic models of growth with intergenerational altruism," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(1), pages 73-83, May.
    52. Casamatta, Georges & Cremer, Helmuth & Pestieau, Pierre, 2000. " The Political Economy of Social Security," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 503-522, June.
    53. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement around the World," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number grub99-1, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Corsini, Lorenzo & Spataro, Luca, 2011. "Optimal decisions on pension plans in the presence of financial literacy costs and income inequalities," MPRA Paper 30946, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ryo Arawatari & Tetsuo Ono, 2015. "A Political Economy Model of Earnings Mobility and Redistribution Policy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 17(3), pages 346-382, June.
    3. Jeongseok Song & Doojin Ryu, 2018. "Aging effects on consumption risk-sharing channels in European countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(2), pages 585-617.
    4. Westerhout, Ed & Meijdam, Lex & Ponds, Eduard & Bonenkamp, Jan, 2021. "Should we Revive PAYG? On the Optimal Pension System in View of Current Economic Trends," Other publications TiSEM 63418f60-e248-4dc9-aac8-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Ryo Arawatari & Tetsuo Ono, 2011. "A Political Economy Theory of Government Debt and Social Security," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 11-33, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    6. Daniel Dimitrov, 2022. "Intergenerational Risk Sharing with Market Liquidity Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-028/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Ed Westerhout, 2011. "Intergenerational Risk Sharing in Time-Consistent Funded Pension Schemes," CPB Discussion Paper 176, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    8. Tim Worrall & Alessia Russo & Francesco Lancia, 2017. "Sustainable Intergenerational Insurance," 2017 Meeting Papers 319, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Ishida, Ryo & Oguro, Kazumasa, 2018. "The viability of a voting system that allocates parliamentary seats according to life expectancy: An analysis using OLG models," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 51-57.
    10. Beetsma, R. & Romp, W., 2016. "Intergenerational Risk Sharing," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 311-380, Elsevier.
    11. Luuk Metselaar & Peter Zwaneveld & Casper Ewijk, 2022. "Reforming Occupational Pensions in the Netherlands: Contract and Intergenerational Aspects," De Economist, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 7-36, February.
    12. Beetsma, Roel & Romp, Ward E & van Maurik, Ron, 2017. "What Drives Pension Reform Measures in the OECD? Evidence based on a New Comprehensive Dataset and Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 12313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Bielecki Marcin & Tyrowicz Joanna & Makarski Krzysztof, 2018. "Illusory Gains from Privatizing Social Security when Reform is Politically Unstable," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 24(2), pages 1-12, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lans Bovenberg & Harald Uhlig, 2008. "Pension Systems and the Allocation of Macroeconomic Risk," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 241-344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Casamatta, G. & Batté, L., 2016. "The Political Economy of Population Aging," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 381-444, Elsevier.
    3. Mehlkopf, R.J., 2011. "Risk sharing with the unborn," Other publications TiSEM fe8a8df6-455f-4624-af10-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Daniel Harenberg & Alexander Ludwig, 2019. "Idiosyncratic Risk, Aggregate Risk, And The Welfare Effects Of Social Security," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(2), pages 661-692, May.
    5. Georges Casamatta & L. Batté, 2016. "The Political Economy of Population Aging," Post-Print hal-02520521, HAL.
    6. Debora Kusmerski Bilard, 2008. "Optimal Sharing of Labor Productivity Risks and Mix of Pay-As-You-Go and Savings," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-066/1, Tinbergen Institute, revised 09 Aug 2012.
    7. Daniel Harenberg & Alexander Ludwig, "undated". "Social Security and the Interactions Between Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Risk," Working Papers ETH-RC-14-002, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    8. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Vincenzo Galasso & Paola Profeta, 2005. "Early Retirement and Social Security: A Long Term Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 1571, CESifo.
    9. Beetsma, R. & Romp, W., 2016. "Intergenerational Risk Sharing," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 311-380, Elsevier.
    10. Matsen, Egil & Thogersen, Oystein, 2004. "Designing social security - a portfolio choice approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 883-904, August.
    11. Gottardi, Piero & Kubler, Felix, 2011. "Social security and risk sharing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1078-1106, May.
    12. Daniel Harenberg & Alexander Ludwig, 2015. "Social security in an analytically tractable overlapping generations model with aggregate and idiosyncratic risks," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(4), pages 579-603, August.
    13. Dirk Krueger, 2006. "Public Insurance against Idiosyncratic and Aggregate Risk: The Case of Social Security and Progressive Income Taxation," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 52(4), pages 587-620, December.
    14. Tim Worrall & Alessia Russo & Francesco Lancia, 2017. "Sustainable Intergenerational Insurance," 2017 Meeting Papers 319, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Gollier, Christian, 2008. "Intergenerational risk-sharing and risk-taking of a pension fund," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(5-6), pages 1463-1485, June.
    16. Ryo Arawatari & Tetsuo Ono, 2008. "Aging, Inequality and Social Security," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 08-19, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    17. De Menil, Georges & Murtin, Fabrice & Sheshinski, Eytan & Yokossi, Tite, 2016. "A rational, economic model of paygo tax rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 55-72.
    18. Tetsuo Ono, 2014. "Economic Growth and the Politics of Intergenerational Redistribution," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 14-17-Rev., Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics, revised Sep 2015.
    19. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Vincenzo Galasso & Paola Profeta, "undated". "The Evolution of Retirement," Working Papers 2005-03, FEDEA.
    20. Gabrielle Demange, 2009. "On Sustainable Pay‐as‐You‐Go Contribution Rules," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 11(4), pages 493-527, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov equilibria; Pension Systems; social optimum;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6972. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.