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Planning for the optimal mix of paygo tax and funded savings

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  • DE MENIL, GEORGES
  • MURTIN, FABRICE
  • SHESHINSKI, EYTAN

Abstract

We analyze the optimal balance between social security taxation and private saving in the provision of retirement income in dynamically efficient economies, a question at the center of policy debates in Europe and the United States. We consider the relative importance for this question of the return to capital, the internal return of the pay-as-you-go system, and the variabilities and correlation (or independence) of labor earnings and the capital return. We analyse these influences theoretically in the context of a two-period, overlapping generations model with uncertainty. We use a new method to calibrate the model using annual data on GDP per worker and the total real return on equities, from 1950 to 2002, from which we infer the stochastic characteristics of lifetime labor income and the return to lifetime savings in the US, UK, France and Japan. We obtain a range of optimal, steady-state values of the social security tax and the rate of lifetime savings. When the relative rate of risk aversion is assumed to be 2.5, the computed optimal tax varies from 5% in the United States to 22% in Japan. France is similar to Japan, and the UK is in between.

Suggested Citation

  • De Menil, Georges & Murtin, Fabrice & Sheshinski, Eytan, 2006. "Planning for the optimal mix of paygo tax and funded savings," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 1-25, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jpenef:v:5:y:2006:i:01:p:1-25_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Gottardi, Piero & Kubler, Felix, 2011. "Social security and risk sharing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1078-1106, May.
    2. Le Blanc, Julia & Scholl, Almuth, 2011. "Optimal savings for retirement: The role of individual accounts and disaster expectations," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,33, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Lans Bovenberg & Harald Uhlig, 2008. "Pension Systems and the Allocation of Macroeconomic Risk," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 241-344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Corsini, Lorenzo & Spataro, Luca, 2013. "Savings for retirement under liquidity constraints: A note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 258-261.
    5. Øystein Thøgersen, 2006. "Intergenerational Risk Sharing by Means of Pay-as-you-go Programs – an Investigation of Alternative Mechanisms," CESifo Working Paper Series 1759, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:146:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. D'Amato, Marcello & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2010. "Political intergenerational risk sharing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(9-10), pages 628-637, October.
    8. Gollier, Christian, 2008. "Intergenerational risk-sharing and risk-taking of a pension fund," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(5-6), pages 1463-1485, June.
    9. Piero Gottardi & Felix Kubler, 2006. "Social Security and Risk Sharing," CESifo Working Paper Series 1705, CESifo Group Munich.
    10. Lorenzo Corsini & Luca Spataro, 2015. "Optimal Decisions on Pension Plans in the Presence of Information Costs and Financial Literacy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 17(3), pages 383-414, June.
    11. Markus Knell, 2010. "The Optimal Mix Between Funded and Unfunded Pension Systems When People Care About Relative Consumption," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(308), pages 710-733, October.
    12. De Menil, Georges & Murtin, Fabrice & Sheshinski, Eytan & Yokossi, Tite, 2016. "A rational, economic model of paygo tax rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 55-72.
    13. Debora Kusmerski Bilard, 2008. "Optimal Sharing of Labor Productivity Risks and Mix of Pay-As-You-Go and Savings," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-066/1, Tinbergen Institute, revised 09 Aug 2012.
    14. Alonso-García, J. & Devolder, P., 2016. "Optimal mix between pay-as-you-go and funding for DC pension schemes in an overlapping generations model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 224-236.
    15. Le Blanc, Julia & Scholl, Almuth, 2017. "Optimal Savings For Retirement: The Role Of Individual Accounts," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(6), pages 1361-1388, September.
    16. Knell, Markus, 2013. "The Intergenerational Distribution of Demographic Fluctuations in Unfunded and Funded Pension Systems," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79830, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. M. Carmen Boado-Penas & Julia Eisenberg & Ralf Korn, 2019. "Transforming public pensions: A mixed scheme with a credit granted by the state," Papers 1912.12329, arXiv.org.
    18. Romaniuk, Katarzyna, 2018. "A simple rule to determine the usefulness of the paygo system on diversification grounds," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 282-284.

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