IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/vfsc13/79830.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Intergenerational Distribution of Demographic Fluctuations in Unfunded and Funded Pension Systems

Author

Listed:
  • Knell, Markus

Abstract

In this paper I use a multi-period OLG model to study how a demographic shock is distributed among different generations. In particular, I investigate whether a funded pension system allows for a smoother adjustment than an unfunded system. The results suggest that the answer to this question depends on the specific organization of the funded system. If the contributions are only invested into a non-accumulated asset in fixed supply (e.g. into "land") and if the investment decisions are guided by fixed rules then the intergenerational distribution of the demographic shock is almost identical in the two systems. Assuming optimal investment decisions, on the other hand, will increase or decrease the fluctuations of the funded pillar (depending on the degree of risk aversion). It is only for the case where all savings are invested into accumulable, productive capital that the funded system will dampen the distributional consequences of a demographic shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Knell, Markus, 2013. "The Intergenerational Distribution of Demographic Fluctuations in Unfunded and Funded Pension Systems," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79830, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79830
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/79830/1/VfS_2013_pid_80.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kulish Mariano & Kent Christopher & Smith Kathryn, 2010. "Aging, Retirement, and Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, July.
    2. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 49-87, January.
    3. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "Global Aging: Issues, Answers, More Questions," MEA discussion paper series 04055, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    4. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global demographic change : dimensions and economic significance," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 9-56.
    5. Axel Börsch-Supan, 2004. "Global Aging: Issues, Answers, More Questions," Working Papers wp084, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    6. Alexander Ludwig & Michael Reiter, 2010. "Sharing Demographic Risk--Who Is Afraid of the Baby Bust?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 83-118, November.
    7. Robert Fenge & Martin Werding, 2003. "Ageing and Fiscal Imbalances Across Generations: Concepts of Measurement," CESifo Working Paper Series 842, CESifo.
    8. James M. Poterba, 2004. "The impact of population aging on financial markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 163-216.
    9. Henning Bohn, 2001. "Social Security and Demographic Uncertainty: The Risk-Sharing Properties of Alternative Policies," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 203-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Assar Lindbeck & Mats Persson, 2003. "The Gains from Pension Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 74-112, March.
    11. Bohn, Henning, 2009. "Intergenerational risk sharing and fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 805-816, September.
    12. Fehr, Hans & Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2008. "Fertility, mortality and the developed world's demographic transition," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 455-473.
    13. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "Global aging : issues, answers, more questions," Papers 07-28, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    14. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Gasche, Martin, 2010. "Zur Sinnhaftigkeit der Riester-Rente," MEA discussion paper series 10197, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    15. Auerbach, Alan J. & Lee, Ronald, 2011. "Welfare and generational equity in sustainable unfunded pension systems," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1-2), pages 16-27, February.
    16. Robin Brooks, 2002. "Asset-Market Effects of the Baby Boom and Social-Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 402-406, May.
    17. Favero, Carlo A. & Gozluklu, Arie E. & Tamoni, Andrea, 2011. "Demographic Trends, the Dividend-Price Ratio, and the Predictability of Long-Run Stock Market Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(5), pages 1493-1520, October.
    18. Dutta, Jayasri & Kapur, Sandeep & Orszag, J. Michael, 2000. "A portfolio approach to the optimal funding of pensions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 201-206, November.
    19. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "GLOBAL AGING - Issues, Answers, More Questions," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-28, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    20. Ayse Imrohoroglu & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Douglas H. Joines, 1999. "Social Security in an Overlapping Generations Economy with Land," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 638-665, July.
    21. De Menil, Georges & Murtin, Fabrice & Sheshinski, Eytan, 2006. "Planning for the optimal mix of paygo tax and funded savings," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 1-25, March.
    22. Knell, Markus, 2010. "How automatic adjustment factors affect the internal rate of return of PAYG pension systems," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, January.
    23. Markus Knell, 2010. "The Optimal Mix Between Funded and Unfunded Pension Systems When People Care About Relative Consumption," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(308), pages 710-733, October.
    24. Barr, Nicholas & Diamond, Peter, 2009. "Pension Reform: A Short Guide," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195387728.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roel van Elk & Marc van der Steeg & Dinand Webbink, 2013. "The effects of a special program for multi-problem school dropouts on educational enrolment, employment and criminal behaviour; Evidence from a field experiment," CPB Discussion Paper 241.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Alonso-García, J. & Devolder, P., 2016. "Optimal mix between pay-as-you-go and funding for DC pension schemes in an overlapping generations model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 224-236.
    3. Metzger, Christoph, 2016. "The German statutory pension scheme: Balance sheet, cross-sectional internal rates of return and implicit tax rates," FZG Discussion Papers 63, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    4. Alexander Ludwig & Michael Reiter, 2010. "Sharing Demographic Risk--Who Is Afraid of the Baby Bust?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 83-118, November.
    5. Lans Bovenberg & Harald Uhlig, 2008. "Pension Systems and the Allocation of Macroeconomic Risk," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 241-344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2007. "Work Disability, Health, and Incentive Effects," MEA discussion paper series 07135, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    7. Tran, Chung, 2018. "Temptation and taxation with elastic labor," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 351-369.
    8. Markus Knell, 2010. "The Optimal Mix Between Funded and Unfunded Pension Systems When People Care About Relative Consumption," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(308), pages 710-733, October.
    9. Woodland, A., 2016. "Taxation, Pensions, and Demographic Change," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 713-780, Elsevier.
    10. Beetsma, R. & Romp, W., 2016. "Intergenerational Risk Sharing," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 311-380, Elsevier.
    11. Laura Romeu Gordo & Andreas Motel-Klingebiel & Susanne Wurm, 2009. "SOEP as a Source for Research on Ageing: Issues, Measures and Possibilities for Improvement," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 173, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    12. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:146:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Daniel Harenberg & Alexander Ludwig, 2019. "Idiosyncratic Risk, Aggregate Risk, And The Welfare Effects Of Social Security," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(2), pages 661-692, May.
    14. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2019. "Facing Demographic Challenges: Pension Cuts Or Tax Hikes?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 625-673, March.
    15. Holger Bonin, 2009. "15 Years of Pension Reform in Germany: Old Successes and New Threats," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 34(4), pages 548-560, October.
    16. repec:acb:cbeeco:2014-616 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Hank, Karsten & Jürges, Hendrik, 2005. "New Comprehensive and International View on Ageing: The Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe," MEA discussion paper series 05075, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    18. Bilancini, Ennio & D’Antoni, Massimo, 2012. "The desirability of pay-as-you-go pensions when relative consumption matters and returns are stochastic," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 418-422.
    19. Attanasio, O. & Bonfatti, A. & Kitao, S. & Weber, G., 2016. "Global Demographic Trends," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 179-235, Elsevier.
    20. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2015. "The dynamic fiscal effects of demographic shift: The case of Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-122.
    21. Ennio Bilancini & Massimo D'Antoni, 2008. "Pensions and Intergenerational Risk-Sharing When Relative Consumption Matters," Department of Economics University of Siena 541, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    22. Elod Takats, 2010. "Ageing and asset prices," BIS Working Papers 318, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79830. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfsocea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.