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The Intergenerational Distribution of Demographic Fluctuations in Unfunded and Funded Pension Systems

  • Knell, Markus

In this paper I use a multi-period OLG model to study how a demographic shock is distributed among different generations. In particular, I investigate whether a funded pension system allows for a smoother adjustment than an unfunded system. The results suggest that the answer to this question depends on the specific organization of the funded system. If the contributions are only invested into a non-accumulated asset in fixed supply (e.g. into "land") and if the investment decisions are guided by fixed rules then the intergenerational distribution of the demographic shock is almost identical in the two systems. Assuming optimal investment decisions, on the other hand, will increase or decrease the fluctuations of the funded pillar (depending on the degree of risk aversion). It is only for the case where all savings are invested into accumulable, productive capital that the funded system will dampen the distributional consequences of a demographic shock.

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File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/79830/1/VfS_2013_pid_80.pdf
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Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order with number 79830.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79830
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.socialpolitik.org/
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  1. Ludwig, Alexander & Reiter, Michael, 2008. "Sharing Demographic Risk - Who is Afraid of the Baby Bust?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 08-47, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  2. Favero, Carlo A. & Gozluklu, Arie E. & Tamoni, Andrea, 2011. "Demographic Trends, the Dividend-Price Ratio, and the Predictability of Long-Run Stock Market Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(05), pages 1493-1520, November.
  3. Markus Knell, 2008. "The Optimal Mix Between Funded and Unfunded Pensions System When People Care About Relative Consumption," Working Papers 146, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  4. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 49-87, January.
  5. Alan J. Auerbach & Ronald Lee, 2009. "Welfare and Generational Equity in Sustainable Unfunded Pension Systems," NBER Working Papers 14682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Henning Bohn, 1999. "Social Security and Demographic Uncertainty: The Risk Sharing Properties of Alternative Policies," NBER Working Papers 7030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. James M. Poterba, 2004. "The impact of population aging on financial markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 163-216.
  8. Knell, Markus, 2010. "How automatic adjustment factors affect the internal rate of return of PAYG pension systems," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 1-23, January.
  9. Henning Bohn, 2004. "Intergenerational Risk Sharing and Fiscal Policy," 2004 Meeting Papers 22, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Robert Fenge & Martin Werding, 2003. "Ageing and Fiscal Imbalances Across Generations: Concepts of Measurement," CESifo Working Paper Series 842, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Fehr, Hans & Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2008. "Fertility, mortality and the developed world's demographic transition," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 455-473.
  12. Robin Brooks, 2002. "Asset-Market Effects of the Baby Boom and Social-Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 402-406, May.
  13. Mariano Kulish & Kathryn Smith & Christopher Kent, 2006. "Ageing, Retirement and Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  14. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance," NBER Working Papers 10817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Ayse Imrohoroglu & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Douglas H. Joines, 1999. "Social Security in an Overlapping Generations Economy with Land," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 638-665, July.
  16. Lindbeck, Assar & Persson, Mats, 2002. "The Gains from Pension Reform," Working Paper Series 580, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  17. Georges de Menil & Eytan Sheshinski, 2004. "Planning for the Optimal Mix of Paygo Tax and Funded Savings," DELTA Working Papers 2004-15, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  18. Barr, Nicholas & Diamond, Peter, 2009. "Pension Reform: A Short Guide," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195387728, March.
  19. Dutta, Jayasri & Kapur, Sandeep & Orszag, J. Michael, 2000. "A portfolio approach to the optimal funding of pensions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 201-206, November.
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