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Fertility, Mortality, and the Developed World’s Demographic Transition

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  • Hans Fehr
  • Sabine Jokisch
  • Laurence Kotlikoff

Abstract

This study uses Fehr, Jokisch, and Kotlikoff’s (2004a) dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of changes in fertility and mortality on the developed world’s demographic transition. The model features three regions – the U.S., Japan, and the EU-15 – and incorporates age- and time-specific fertility and mortality rates, detailed fiscal institutions, and international capital mobility, subject to adjustment costs. Our simulations confirm the offsetting fiscal and economic consequences of both higher fertility and lower mortality rates. The simulations indicate very minor effects on the developed world’s rather bleak baseline transition path from either major increases in fertility rates or major reductions in mortality rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2004. "Fertility, Mortality, and the Developed World’s Demographic Transition," CESifo Working Paper Series 1326, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1326
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp1326.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan Auerbach & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2002. "Auerbach-Kotlikoff Model," QM&RBC Codes 90, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
    2. Ronald Lee & Jonathan Skinner, 1999. "Will Aging Baby Boomers Bust the Federal Budget?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 117-140, Winter.
    3. repec:dgr:rugccs:200403 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - The Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," NBER Working Papers 10096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Aart Kraay & Norman Loayza & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2005. "Country Portfolios," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(4), pages 914-945, June.
    6. Sveinbjörn Blöndal & Stefano Scarpetta, 1999. "The Retirement Decision in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 202, OECD Publishing.
    7. David Altig, 2001. "Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 574-595, June.
    8. Barbara Berkel & Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2004. "Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(1), pages 71-90, February.
    9. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life-cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, September.
    10. Fehr, Hans & Halder, Gitte & Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2003. "A simulation model for the demographic transition in the OECD: Data requirements, model structure and calibration," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 45, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
    11. Heijdra, Ben J. & Ligthart, Jenny E., 2006. "The Macroeconomic Dynamics Of Demographic Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 349-370, June.
    12. Gokhale, Jagadeesh & Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Sefton, James & Weale, Martin, 2001. "Simulating the transmission of wealth inequality via bequests," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 93-128, January.
    13. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2004. "The Role of Immigration in Dealing with the Developed World's Demographic Transition," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 60(3), pages 296-296, September.
    14. Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Publishing.
    15. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J Kotlikoff, 2006. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the US, EU, Japan and China," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.), Demography and Financial Markets Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2007. "Simulating the Dynamic Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Effects of the FairTax," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 60(2), pages 225-252, June.
    3. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2007. "Investment and the Cost of Capital: New Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 13174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic transition; computable general equilibrium model (CGE); fertility; mortality;

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