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Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?

  • Barbara Berkel
  • Axel Börsch-Supan
  • Alexander Ludwig
  • Joachim Winter

Can the aging problem be solved by a higher birth rate? While the popular notion -"if we have too many elderly we need more children in order to compensate for this"- seems plausible, the results of economic theory are ambiguous at best. This paper employs a quantitative macroeconomic simulation model for Germany and leads to a more subtle view, stressing the importance of human capital formation for long-term economic growth in this context. Moreover, it takes a very long transitional period until a higher fertility rate results in a larger and better- educated labour force that contributes to social security. Therefore, reforms of the social security system still have the highest priority because this is the only way to solve the problems of an aging baby-boomer generation in the short and medium term - meaning the time until the baby boomers will retire. Copyright Verein für Socialpolitik und Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2004

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Article provided by Verein für Socialpolitik in its journal Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik.

Volume (Year): 5 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 71-90

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Handle: RePEc:bla:perwir:v:5:y:2004:i:1:p:71-90
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  1. Georg Hirte, 2002. "Welfare and Macroeconomic Effects of the German Pension Acts of 1992 and 1999: A Dynamic CGE Study," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(1), pages 81-106, 02.
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  17. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
  18. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1998. "Projected U.S. demographics and social security," Working Paper Series WP-98-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  22. Miles, David & Iben, Andreas, 2000. "The Reform of Pension Systems: Winners and Losers across Generations in the United Kingdom and Germany," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(266), pages 203-28, May.
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