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Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?

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Listed:
  • Barbara Berkel
  • Axel Börsch-Supan
  • Alexander Ludwig
  • Joachim Winter

Abstract

Can the aging problem be solved by a higher birth rate? While the popular notion -"if we have too many elderly we need more children in order to compensate for this"- seems plausible, the results of economic theory are ambiguous at best. This paper employs a quantitative macroeconomic simulation model for Germany and leads to a more subtle view, stressing the importance of human capital formation for long-term economic growth in this context. Moreover, it takes a very long transitional period until a higher fertility rate results in a larger and better- educated labour force that contributes to social security. Therefore, reforms of the social security system still have the highest priority because this is the only way to solve the problems of an aging baby-boomer generation in the short and medium term - meaning the time until the baby boomers will retire. Copyright Verein für Socialpolitik und Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2004

Suggested Citation

  • Barbara Berkel & Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2004. "Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(1), pages 71-90, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:perwir:v:5:y:2004:i:1:p:71-90
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    Cited by:

    1. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    2. Niebuhr, Annekatrin & Stiller, Silvia, 2005. "Demographischer Wandel in Norddeutschland: Konsequenzen und Handlungsbedarf," HWWA Reports 250, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    3. Fehr, Hans & Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2008. "Fertility, mortality and the developed world's demographic transition," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 455-473.
    4. Kai A. Konrad & Wolfram F. Richter, 2005. "Zur Berücksichtigung von Kindern bei umlagefinanzierter Alterssicherung," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(1), pages 115-130, February.

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