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Pension reform during the demographic transition

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  • Fehr, Hans

Abstract

Like in many other OECD countries, the population will age rapidly in Germany during the next decades. This undermines the future sustainability of the current unfunded public pension system and motivates the search for reform options. The present paper aimes to evaluate some currently discussed pension reform proposals. The numerical analysis is based on an extended overlapping-generations model which accounts for rising life expectancy and declining fertility in oder to replicate the demographic transition in Germany. Given the current unfunded pension system, the model first calculates a baseline path of the economy. Then it compares the macroeconomic impact as well as the distributional and efficiency effects of various reform measures such as partial funding and tax financed minimum pensions.

Suggested Citation

  • Fehr, Hans, 1999. "Pension reform during the demographic transition," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 8, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewep:8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Fehr, Hans, 1998. "Privatization of public pensions in Germany: Who gains and how much?," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 148, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
    6. Steigum, E.Jr., 1992. "Accounting for Long-Run Effects of Fiscal Policy by Means of Computable Overlapping Generations Models," Papers 05-92, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
    7. Steven A. Sass & Robert K. Triest, 1997. "Social Security reform: links to saving, investment and growth," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue jun.
    8. Schnabel, Reinhold, 1998. "Rates of return of the German pay-as-you-go pension system," Papers 98-56, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
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    Cited by:

    1. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Florian Heiss & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2003. "Pension Reform, Capital Markets and the Rate of Return," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4(2), pages 151-181, May.
    2. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    3. Kai A. Konrad & Gert Wagner, 2000. "Reform of the Public Pension System in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 200, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Florian Heiss & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2003. "Pension Reform, Capital Markets and the Rate of Return," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4(2), pages 151-181, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population Ageing; Pension reform; overlapping-generations models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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