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Pension reform during the demographic transition

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  • Fehr, Hans

Abstract

Like in many other OECD countries, the population will age rapidly in Germany during the next decades. This undermines the future sustainability of the current unfunded public pension system and motivates the search for reform options. The present paper aimes to evaluate some currently discussed pension reform proposals. The numerical analysis is based on an extended overlapping-generations model which accounts for rising life expectancy and declining fertility in oder to replicate the demographic transition in Germany. Given the current unfunded pension system, the model first calculates a baseline path of the economy. Then it compares the macroeconomic impact as well as the distributional and efficiency effects of various reform measures such as partial funding and tax financed minimum pensions.

Suggested Citation

  • Fehr, Hans, 1999. "Pension reform during the demographic transition," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 8, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewep:8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steigum, E.Jr., 1992. "Accounting for Long-Run Effects of Fiscal Policy by Means of Computable Overlapping Generations Models," Papers 05-92, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    3. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    4. Steven A. Sass & Robert K. Triest, 1997. "Social Security reform: links to saving, investment and growth," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 41(Jun).
    5. Broer, D. Peter & Lassila, Jukka, . "Pension Policies and Public Debt in Dynamic CGE Models," ETLA A, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 23.
    6. Schnabel, Reinhold, 1997. "Rates of Return of the German Pay-As-You-Go Pension System," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 98-56, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    7. Schnabel, Reinhold, 1998. "Rates of return of the German pay-as-you-go pension system," Papers 98-56, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    8. Fehr, Hans, 1998. "Privatization of public pensions in Germany: Who gains and how much?," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 148, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population Ageing; Pension reform; overlapping-generations models;

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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