IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/wuewep/47.html

Pension Reform and Demographic Uncertainty: The Case of Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Habermann, Christian
  • Fehr, Hans

Abstract

The present paper compares the distributional and risk-sharing consequences of two pension reform proposals in Germany which both aim to improve the sustainability of the current system by introducing demographic variables to the benefit calculation. While the first reform proposes a so-called "sustainability factor" which measures the changes in the dependency ratio, the second reform proposes a so-called "demographic factor" which takes into account the changes in life expectancy. Our simulations indicate that both reforms imply a double burden for currently middle-aged generations and a double relief for future living generations. On the one side, resources are redistributed from currently towards future living generations. In addition, part of the risk from demographic uncertainty is shifted from future living towards currently living middle-aged generations. The reforms differ, however, with respect to the magnitude of the resource distribution and risk implications. Therefore, future generations are much better of with the "sustainability factor", while it is not clear whether middle-aged generations are better off with the "demographic factor" or the "sustainability factor".

Suggested Citation

  • Habermann, Christian & Fehr, Hans, 2003. "Pension Reform and Demographic Uncertainty: The Case of Germany," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 47, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewep:47
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/22340/1/wep47.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alho, Juha M. & Hougaard Jensen, Svend E. & Lassila, Jukka & Valkonen, Tarmo, 2005. "Controlling the effects of demographic risks: the role of pension indexation schemes," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 139-153, July.
    2. Holger Bonin, 2001. "Will it Last? An Assessment of the 2001 German Pension Reform," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 26(4), pages 547-564, October.
    3. Fetzer, Stefan & Moog, Stefan & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2003. "Die Nachhaltigkeit der gesetzlichen Kranken- und Pflegeversicherung: Diagnose und Therapie," Discussion Papers 106, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft.
    4. Jukka Lassila & Tarmo Valkonen, 2001. "Pension Prefunding, Ageing, and Demographic Uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 8(4), pages 573-593, August.
    5. Fehr, Hans, 1999. "Welfare Effects of Dynamic Tax Reforms," Beiträge zur Finanzwissenschaft, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, edition 1, volume 5, number urn:isbn:9783161470165, September.
    6. Beetsma, Roel & Bettendorf, Leon & Broer, Peter, 2003. "The budgeting and economic consequences of ageing in the Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 987-1013, September.
    7. Ryan D. Edwards & Ronald D. Lee, 2001. "The fiscal impact of population change," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
    8. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Florian Heiss & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2003. "Pension Reform, Capital Markets and the Rate of Return," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4(2), pages 151-181, May.
    9. Hans Fehr, 2000. "Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 419-443, September.
    10. Hirte Georg, 2002. "Welfare and Macroeconomic Effects of the German Pension Acts of 1992 and 1999: A Dynamic CGE Study," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 81-106, February.
    11. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - The Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," NBER Working Papers 10096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. repec:bla:scandj:v:102:y:2000:i:3:p:419-43 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Auerbach,Alan J. & Lee,Ronald D. (ed.), 2001. "Demographic Change and Fiscal Policy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521662444, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. De-Lei Sheng & Linfeng Shi & Danping Li & Yanping Zhao, 2022. "Manage Pension Deficit with Heterogeneous Insurance," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 1119-1141, June.
    3. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    4. Andrew Binning & Murat Özbilgin & Christie Smith, 2026. "An overlapping generations model to investigate the fiscal implications of New Zealand's ageing population," Treasury Working Paper Series wp26/01, New Zealand Treasury.
    5. Holmøy, Erling & Strøm, Birger, 2013. "Computable General Equilibrium Assessments of Fiscal Sustainability in Norway," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 105-158, Elsevier.
    6. repec:acb:cbeeco:2014-616 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2019. "Facing Demographic Challenges: Pension Cuts Or Tax Hikes?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 625-673, March.
    8. Attias, Anna & Arezzo, Maria Felice & Pianese, Augusto & Varga, Zoltan, 2016. "A comparison of two legislative approaches to the pay-as-you-go pension system in terms of adequacy. The Italian case," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 203-211.
    9. Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Unemployment, human capital depreciation and pension benefits: an empirical evaluation of German data," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 223-241, April.
    10. Alfonso R. Sánchez, 2014. "The automatic adjustment of pension expenditures in Spain:an evaluation of the 2013 pension reform," Working Papers 1420, Banco de España.
    11. Knell, Markus, 2010. "How automatic adjustment factors affect the internal rate of return of PAYG pension systems," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, January.
    12. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2015. "The dynamic fiscal effects of demographic shift: The case of Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-122.
    13. Tran, Chung, 2018. "Temptation and taxation with elastic labor," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 351-369.
    14. Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2020. "Are incentivized old-age savings schemes effective under incomplete rationality?," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224526, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Hans FEHR, 2010. "Pension Reform with Variable Retirment Age," EcoMod2010 259600055, EcoMod.
    16. Hans Fehr, 2009. "Computable Stochastic Equilibrium Models and Their Use in Pension- and Ageing Research," De Economist, Springer, vol. 157(4), pages 359-416, December.
    17. repec:rim:rimwps:20-06 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Pianese, Augusto & Attias, Anna & Bianchi, Sergio & Varga, Zoltàn, 2020. "On the asymptotic equilibrium of a population system with migration," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 115-127.
    19. Honkatukia, Juha, 2011. "Three takes on sustainability," Research Reports P58, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Woodland, A., 2016. "Taxation, Pensions, and Demographic Change," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 713-780, Elsevier.
    21. Erling Holmøy & Kyrre Stensnes, 2008. "Will the Norwegian pension reform reach its goals? An integrated micro-macro assessment," Discussion Papers 557, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    22. Lassila, Jukka & Valkonen, Tarmo, 2007. "Longevity Adjustment of Pension Benefits," Discussion Papers 1073, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "Global Aging: Issues, Answers, More Questions," MEA discussion paper series 04055, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    2. Kallweit Manuel, 2009. "Rentenreform und Rentenzugangsentscheidung – Eine numerische Gleichgewichtsanalyse / Pension Reform and Endogenous Retirement – a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(4), pages 426-449, August.
    3. Alho, Juha M. & Vanne, Reijo, 2006. "On predictive distributions of public net liabilities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 725-733.
    4. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "Global aging : issues, answers, more questions," Papers 07-28, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    5. Erling Holmøy & Kyrre Stensnes, 2008. "Will the Norwegian pension reform reach its goals? An integrated micro-macro assessment," Discussion Papers 557, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    6. Jokisch, Sabine & Halder, Gitte & Fehr, Hans, 2004. "A Simulation Model for the Demographic Transition in Germany: Data Requirements, Model Structure and Calibration," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 48, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    7. Barbara Berkel & Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2004. "Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(1), pages 71-90, February.
    8. Fehr, Hans & Halder, Gitte & Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2003. "A simulation model for the demographic transition in the OECD: Data requirements, model structure and calibration," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 45, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    9. de la Croix, David & Docquier, Frederic & Liegeois, Philippe, 2007. "Income growth in the 21st century: Forecasts with an overlapping generations model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 621-635.
    10. Akin Serife Nuray, 2012. "Immigration, Fiscal Policy, and Welfare in an Aging Population," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-45, July.
    11. Joachim Winter, 2002. "The impact of pension reforms and demography on stock markets," MEA discussion paper series 02021, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    12. Koka, Katerina & Kosempel, Stephen, 2014. "A life-cycle analysis of ending mandatory retirement," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 57-66.
    13. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    14. Woodland, A., 2016. "Taxation, Pensions, and Demographic Change," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 713-780, Elsevier.
    15. Valkonen, Tarmo, 2002. "Demographic Uncertainty and Taxes," Discussion Papers 816, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    16. Lassila, Jukka & Valkonen, Tarmo & Alho, Juha M., 2011. "Fiscal sustainability and policy rules under changing demographic forecasts," Discussion Papers 1265, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    17. repec:bla:germec:v:11:y:2010:i::p:487-510 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2001. "Aging and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 8553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Hans Fehr & Christian Habermann, 2008. "Risk Sharing and Efficiency Implications of Progressive Pension Arrangements," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(2), pages 419-443, June.
    20. Lassila, Jukka & Valkonen, Tarmo, 2007. "Longevity Adjustment of Pension Benefits," Discussion Papers 1073, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    21. Peichl, Andreas, 2005. "Die Evaluation von Steuerreformen durch Simulationsmodelle," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 05-1, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewep:47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/viwuede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.