IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/itaxpf/v8y2001i4p573-593.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pension Prefunding, Ageing, and Demographic Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Jukka Lassila
  • Tarmo Valkonen

Abstract

Pension prefunding can be used to smooth contribution rates in economies where ageing will increase pension expenditure. But how extensive should prefunding be in a defined benefit pension system when there is considerable uncertainty concerning future mortality, fertility, and migration? We study the prefunding rules in the Finnish earnings-related pension system with an OLG simulation model. The results show that increasing the degree of prefunding could yield a more even intergenerational outcome and make future generations' position better, but it is quite possible to overshoot and harm current generations too much. Making the degree of prefunding fertility-dependent appears to be a useful alternative. With declining fertility, current large cohorts would pay modestly increased contributions. The accumulated funds, however, will be huge in relation to the wage bills of smaller future cohorts. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

Suggested Citation

  • Jukka Lassila & Tarmo Valkonen, 2001. "Pension Prefunding, Ageing, and Demographic Uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 8(4), pages 573-593, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:8:y:2001:i:4:p:573-593
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1011276620950
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1011276620950
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1023/A:1011276620950?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2004. "The pay-as-you-go pension system as fertility insurance and an enforcement device," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1335-1357, July.
    2. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324, Elsevier.
    3. Valkonen, Tarmo, . "The Finnish Corporate and Capital Income Tax Reform: A General Equilibrium Approach," ETLA A, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 29, June.
    4. Bohn, Henning, 1999. "Will social security and Medicare remain viable as the U.S. population is aging?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-53, June.
    5. Palacios,Robert J. & Pallares-Miralles,Montserrat, 2000. "International patterns of pension provision," Policy Research Working Paper Series 98252, The World Bank.
    6. Disney, Richard, 1999. "Notional accounts as a pension reform strategy : an evaluation," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 21302, The World Bank.
    7. Jukka Lassila, 2000. "Wage formation by majority voting and the incentive effects of pensions and taxation," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 89-115, Autumn.
    8. Palacios,Robert J. & Pallares-Miralles,Montserrat, 2000. "International patterns of pension provision," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 98252, The World Bank.
    9. Jukka Lassila & Tarmo Valkonen, 2002. "Prefunding in a Defined Benefit Pension System: The Finnish Case," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Pension Reform in Europe, pages 263-290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fehr, Hans & Habermann, Christian, 2006. "Pension reform and demographic uncertainty: the case of Germany," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 69-90, March.
    2. Alho, Juha M. & Vanne, Reijo, 2006. "On predictive distributions of public net liabilities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 725-733.
    3. Nick Draper & Alex Armstrong, 2007. "GAMMA; a simulation model for ageing, pensions and public finances," CPB Document 147, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. Lucas Bretschger & Karen Pittel, 2005. "Innovative Investments, Natural Resources and Intergenerational Fairness: Are Pension Funds Good for Sustainable Development?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 141(III), pages 355-376, September.
    5. Lassila, Jukka & Valkonen, Tarmo, 2001. "Ageing, Demographic Risks, and Pension Reform," Discussion Papers 765, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    6. Heikki Oksanen, 2001. "A Case for Partial Funding of Pensions with an Application to the EU Candidate Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 466, CESifo.
    7. Valkonen, Tarmo, 2002. "Demographic Uncertainty and Taxes," Discussion Papers 816, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Robalino, 2005. "Pensions in the Middle East and North Africa: Time for Change," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7427, April.
    2. de la Torre, Augusto & Gozzi, Juan Carlos & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2007. "Stock market development under globalization: Whither the gains from reforms?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1731-1754, June.
    3. Valkonen, Tarmo, 2002. "Demographic Uncertainty and Taxes," Discussion Papers 816, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    4. Börsch-Supan, A. & Härtl, K. & Leite, D.N., 2016. "Social Security and Public Insurance," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 781-863, Elsevier.
    5. Lassila, Jukka & Valkonen, Tarmo, 2001. "Ageing, Demographic Risks, and Pension Reform," Discussion Papers 765, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    6. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    7. Cuadros, Jéssica & Jiménez, Luis Felipe, 2003. "Expanding the coverage of pension systems in Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    8. Rocha, Roberto & Vittas, Dimitri, 2001. "Pension reform in Hungary : a preliminary assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2631, The World Bank.
    9. Palacios, Robert, 2006. "Civil-service pension schemes around the world," MPRA Paper 14796, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Alberto Alesina & Edward Glaeser & Bruce Sacerdote, 2001. "Why Doesn't the United States Have a European-Style Welfare State?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2), pages 187-278.
    11. World Bank, 2001. "Risk Management in South Asia : A Poverty Focused Approach," World Bank Publications - Reports 15449, The World Bank Group.
    12. Ngee-Choon Chia & Albert K C Tsui, 2009. "Monetizing Housing Equity to Generate Retirement Incomes," Microeconomics Working Papers 22759, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    13. Brugiavini, Agar & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2004. "The social security reform process in Italy: where do we stand?," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 165-195, July.
    14. Suzanne Doyle & Olivia S. Mitchell & John Piggott, 2001. "Annuity Values in Defined Contribution Retirement Systems: The Case of Singapore and Australia," NBER Working Papers 8091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Luigi Guiso & Michael Haliassos & Tullio Jappelli, 2003. "Household stockholding in Europe: where do we stand and where do we go? [‘Limited market participation and volatility of assets prices’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(36), pages 123-170.
    16. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    17. Miguel Niño-Zarazúa & Armando Barrientos & David Hulme & Sam Hickey, 2010. "Social protection in sub-Saharan Africa: Will the green shoots blossom?," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 11610, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    18. Mitchell Orenstein & Robert Holzmann & Michal Rutkowski, 2003. "Pension Reform in Europe : Process and Progress," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15132, April.
    19. World Bank, 2010. "Strengthening Caribbean Pensions : Improving Equity and Sustainability," World Bank Publications - Reports 2847, The World Bank Group.
    20. Robert Holzmann, 2002. "Can Investments in Emerging Markets Help to Solve the Ageing Problem?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 1(2), pages 215-241, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:8:y:2001:i:4:p:573-593. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.