Will the Norwegian pension reform reach its goals? An integrated micro-macro assessment
The Norwegian pension reform of 2006 intends to (1) improve long run fiscal sustainability by reducing the growth in public old-age expenditures, (2) strengthen labour supply incentives, and (3) maintain the main redistributive features of the present system. We assess to what extent the reform is likely to achieve these three goals, using two empirical models iteratively: We combine a detailed dynamic micro simulation of individual benefits and government pension expenditures with a CGE-model, which captures behavioural effects and equilibrium repercussions. We find that the pension reform improves fiscal balances substantially. Compared to a no-reform scenario, the payroll tax rate can be cut by 10 percentage points in 2050. Increased employment contributes more to the fiscal improvement than the reduction in pension expenditures. However, these changes are basically level effects; the reform has a surprisingly small effect on the growth rate of the necessary tax burden starting in 2020. In particular, the growth rate of public pension expenditures is hardly affected. Stronger government finances and higher employment is obtained at the expense of a significant increase income inequality among old age pensioners.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O.Box 8131 Dep, N-0033 Oslo, Norway|
Phone: (+47) 21 09 00 00
Fax: +47 - 62 88 55 95
Web page: http://www.ssb.no/en/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Heckman, James J, 1993. "What Has Been Learned about Labor Supply in the Past Twenty Years?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 116-121, May.
- Feldstein, Martin, 2005. "Structural Reform of Social Security," Scholarly Articles 2794830, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Holger Bonin, 2001. "Will it Last? An Assessment of the 2001 German Pension Reform," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 26(4), pages 547-564, October.
- Fehr, H. & Sterkeby, W.I. & Thogersen, O., 2000.
"Social Security Reforms and Early Retirement,"
16/00, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
- Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2007. "Fiscal Effects of Social Security Reform in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Fiscal Implications of Reform, pages 503-532 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Habermann, Christian & Fehr, Hans, 2003.
"Pension Reform and Demographic Uncertainty: The Case of Germany,"
W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers
47, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
- Fehr, Hans & Habermann, Christian, 2006. "Pension reform and demographic uncertainty: the case of Germany," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 69-90, March.
- Aaberge, Rolf, 1997. "Interpretation of changes in rank-dependent measures of inequality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 215-219, August.
- Samwick, Andrew A., 1998.
"New evidence on pensions, social security, and the timing of retirement,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 207-236, November.
- Andrew A. Samwick, 1998. "New Evidence on Pensions, Social Security, and the Timing of Retirement," NBER Working Papers 6534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nicholas Barr & Peter Diamond, 2006.
"The economics of pensions,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
2630, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Brinch, Christian & Hernæs, Erik & Strøm, Steinar, 2002.
"Labour Supply Effects of an Early Retirement Programme,"
33/2001, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Christian Brinch & Erik Hernæs & Steinar Strøm, 2001. "Labour Supply Effects of an Early Retirement Programme," CESifo Working Paper Series 463, CESifo Group Munich.
- Katherine Grace Carman & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Impact on Consumption and Saving of Current and Future Fiscal Policies," NBER Working Papers 10085, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fehr, Hans, 2000.
" Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 419-443, June.
- Lindbeck, Assar, 2005.
"Sustainable Social Spending,"
739, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Miles, David, 1999.
"Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
- Miles, David K, 1997. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Publishing.
- Martin Feldstein, 2005.
"Structural Reform of Social Security,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 33-55, Spring.
- Bonin, Holger, 2001. "Will it Last? An Assessment of the 2001 German Pension Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 343, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Lindbeck, Assar & Persson, Mats, 2002.
"The Gains from Pension Reform,"
Working Paper Series
580, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
- Roel Beetsma, 2001.
"The Budgeting and Economic Consequences of Ageing in The Netherlands,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
630, CESifo Group Munich.
- Beetsma, Roel & Bettendorf, Leon & Broer, Peter, 2003. "The budgeting and economic consequences of ageing in the Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 987-1013, September.
- Chan, Sewin & Stevens, Ann Huff, 2004. "Do changes in pension incentives affect retirement? A longitudinal study of subjective retirement expectations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1307-1333, July.
- Lans Bovenberg & Thijs Knaap, 2005. "Ageing, Funded Pensions and the Dutch Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1403, CESifo Group Munich.
- Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement around the World," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number grub99-1.
- Peter Diamond & Jonathan Gruber, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security and Retirement around the World, pages 437-473 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:557. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (L MaasÃ¸)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.