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Pension Reform in Norway. Microsimulating effects on government expenditures, labour supply incentives and benefit distribution

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Abstract

A much higher old-age dependency ratio, together with more generous pension benefits, will lead to a substantial increase in the future public pension expenditures burden in Norway. A pension reform implemented from 2010 will imply a shift to a quasi-actuarial system, seeking to neutralise the expenditure effect of further growth in life expectancy and strengthen ties between former earnings and pension benefits. Labour supply will be stimulated by lowering implicit tax rates and by aligning the social and private costs of early retirement. Using a large dynamic microsimulation model we find that the reform will stimulate labour supply and reduce the future tax burden, but also increase inequality in the benefits received by old age pensioners.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyrre Stensnes & Nils Martin Stølen, 2007. "Pension Reform in Norway. Microsimulating effects on government expenditures, labour supply incentives and benefit distribution," Discussion Papers 524, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:524
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    File URL: https://www.ssb.no/a/publikasjoner/pdf/DP/dp524.pdf
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    1. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "An International Comparison of Generational Accounts," NBER Chapters,in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 73-102 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Richard Disney, 2004. "Are contributions to public pension programmes a tax on employment?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 19(39), pages 267-311, July.
    3. Herwig Immervoll & Henrik Jacobsen Kleven & Claus Thustrup Kreiner & Emmanuel Saez, 2007. "Welfare reform in European countries: a microsimulation analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(516), pages 1-44, January.
    4. Dennis Fredriksen & Kim Massey Heide & Erling Holmøy & Ingeborg Foldøy Solli, 2005. "Macroeconomic effects of proposed pension reforms in Norway," Discussion Papers 417, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    5. Assar Lindbeck & Mats Persson, 2003. "The Gains from Pension Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 74-112, March.
    6. Hernaes, Erik & Sollie, Marte & Strom, Steinar, 2000. " Early Retirement and Economic Incentives," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 481-502, June.
    7. Heckman, James J, 1993. "What Has Been Learned about Labor Supply in the Past Twenty Years?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 116-121, May.
    8. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement around the World," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number grub99-1, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Meritxell Solé & Guadalupe Souto & Concepció Patxot, 2018. "Sustainability and adequacy of the Spanish pension system after the 2013 reform: a microsimulation analysis," UB Economics Working Papers 2018/372, Universitat de Barcelona, Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, UB Economics.
    2. van Sonsbeek, Jan-Maarten, 2010. "Micro simulations on the effects of ageing-related policy measures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 968-979, September.
    3. Milos Marius Cristian, 2012. "Demographic Dynamics And Sustainability Of Public Pension Expenditures Within European Union-15 Member States," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 4, pages 171-174, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pension reform; social security; retirement; pension expenditures;

    JEL classification:

    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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