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Pension Reform in Norway. Microsimulating effects on government expenditures, labour supply incentives and benefit distribution

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    A much higher old-age dependency ratio, together with more generous pension benefits, will lead to a substantial increase in the future public pension expenditures burden in Norway. A pension reform implemented from 2010 will imply a shift to a quasi-actuarial system, seeking to neutralise the expenditure effect of further growth in life expectancy and strengthen ties between former earnings and pension benefits. Labour supply will be stimulated by lowering implicit tax rates and by aligning the social and private costs of early retirement. Using a large dynamic microsimulation model we find that the reform will stimulate labour supply and reduce the future tax burden, but also increase inequality in the benefits received by old age pensioners.

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    File URL: http://www.ssb.no/a/publikasjoner/pdf/DP/dp524.pdf
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    Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 524.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2007
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    Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:524
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    1. Hernaes,E., 1999. "Early retirement and economic incentives," Memorandum 17/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    2. Lindbeck, Assar & Persson, Mats, 2002. "The Gains from Pension Reform," Seminar Papers 712, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    3. Immervoll, Herwig & Kleven, Henrik & Kreiner, Claus Thustrup & Saez, Emmanuel, 2004. "Welfare Reform in European Countries: A Micro-Simulation Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4324, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1998. "An International Comparison of Generational Accounts," NBER Working Papers 6447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Heckman, James J, 1993. "What Has Been Learned about Labor Supply in the Past Twenty Years?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 116-21, May.
    6. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement around the World," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number grub99-1, April.
    7. Richard Disney, 2004. "Are contributions to public pension programmes a tax on employment?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 19(39), pages 267-311, 07.
    8. Dennis Fredriksen & Kim Massey Heide & Erling Holmøy & Ingeborg Foldøy Solli, 2005. "Macroeconomic effects of proposed pension reforms in Norway," Discussion Papers 417, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
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