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Macroeconomic effects of proposed pension reforms in Norway

  • Dennis Fredriksen
  • Kim Massey Heide
  • Erling Holmøy
  • Ingeborg Foldøy Solli

    ()

    (Statistics Norway)

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    Ageing combined with generous welfare state schemes makes the present fiscal policy in Norway unsustainable, despite large government petroleum revenues. We estimate to what extent two suggested reforms of the public pension system improve fiscal sustainability and stimulate employment, two main objectives of the reforms. To this end we apply two large models iteratively: 1) a detailed dynamic micro simulation model to estimate government pension expenditures; 2) a large CGE-model to estimate general equilibrium effects on all tax bases and employment, i.e. macroeconomic effects. We find that the reform proposals have much larger effects than typically found for reforms of the tax and trade policy. Whereas maintaining the present system implies that the payroll tax rate must be increased from about 13 percent today to 25 percent in 2050, both proposals imply that taxes can be reduced from the present level in all years up to 2050. Most of this reduction can be attributed to higher employment.

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    Paper provided by Statistics Norway, Research Department in its series Discussion Papers with number 417.

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    Date of creation: Apr 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:417
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    1. �ystein Th�gersen, 2001. "Reforming social security: assessing the effects of alternative funding strategies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(12), pages 1531-1540.
    2. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Savers-Spenders Theory of Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 120-125, May.
    3. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    4. K. Mc Morrow & W. R�ger, 2002. "EU pension reform - An overview of the debate and an empirical assessment of the main policy reform options," European Economy - Economic Papers 162, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    5. Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Publishing.
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