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Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending


  • Thai-Thanh Dang
  • Pablo Antolín
  • Howard Oxley


This paper provides new projections on the fiscal impact of age-related spending for OECD countries over the next half century. These results are based on national models using an agreed upon set of assumptions about macroeconomic and demographic developments for all countries. Recent reforms to pension systems have partly offset the impact on spending of an increasingly elderly population, and there has been a major improvement in the underlying fiscal situation in the 1990s. However, further age-related spending (including old age pensions, health and spending associated with children) is still projected to increase on average around 6 to 7 per cent of GDP over the projection period. This calls for maintaining the reform effort and intensifying it in several countries, if fiscal sustainability is to be maintained ... Cette étude contient de nouvelles projections sur l’impact budgétaire des dépenses liées à l’âge dans les pays de l’OCDE pour les cinquante prochaines années. Ces résultats reposent sur des modèles nationaux utilisant un cadre macroéconomique et démographique normalisé pour tous les pays. Les réformes récentes des régimes de retraite ont compensé en partie l’incidence du vieillissement de la population sur les dépenses et les situations budgétaires sous-jacentes se sont nettement améliorées dans les années 90. Toutefois, les dépenses liées à l’âge (c’est-à-dire aux pensions de vieillesse, à la santé et aux enfants) devraient augmenter en moyenne de 6 à 7 pour cent du PIB au cours de la période de projection. Il est donc nécessaire de maintenir les efforts de réforme et de les intensifier dans plusieurs pays si l’on veut préserver la viabilité budgétaire ...

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  • Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:305-en

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    More about this item


    ageing populations; health care; long-term projections; pensions; pensions de retraite; projections à long terme; soins de santé; vieillissement de la population;

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies


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