A welfare state funded by nature and OPEC. A guided tour on Norway's path from an exceptionally impressive to an exceptionally strained fiscal position
Large petroleum revenues make Norway an enviable fiscal loner. The fiscal policy rule adopted from 2001 transforms petroleum wealth into foreign assets, and only the real return on the financial fund should be spent annually. Despite this ambitious saving of the petroleum wealth, we find it unlikely that present tax rates and welfare schemes are sustainable in a long run perspective. Rather, the results from combining detailed models of demography and government expenditures with a detailed CGE model, suggest that Norway is exceptional also with respect to strong growth in government expenditures. In our baseline scenario the payroll tax rate must be increased continuously when ageing sets in after 2020, passing twice the present level about 2045. This is required even if the pension fund reaches 1.4 times GDP, commanding an unprecedented degree of fiscal discipline.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O.Box 8131 Dep, N-0033 Oslo, Norway|
Phone: (+47) 21 09 00 00
Fax: (+47) 21 09 49 73
Web page: http://www.ssb.no/en/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pablo Antolín & Wim Suyker, 2001. "How Should Norway Respond to Ageing?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 296, OECD Publishing.
- Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2002.
Handbook of Public Economics,
in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 27, pages 1873-1932
- Dennis Fredriksen & Kim Massey Heide & Erling Holmøy & Ingeborg Foldøy Solli, 2005. "Macroeconomic effects of proposed pension reforms in Norway," Discussion Papers 417, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
- Klette, T.J., 1998.
"Market Power, Scale Economies and Productivity: Estimates from a Panel of Establishment Data,"
15/1998, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Klette, Tor Jakob, 1999. "Market Power, Scale Economies and Productivity: Estimates from a Panel of Establishment Data," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(4), pages 451-76, December.
- Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Publishing.
- Roel Beetsma, 2001.
"The Budgeting and Economic Consequences of Ageing in The Netherlands,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
630, CESifo Group Munich.
- Beetsma, Roel & Bettendorf, Leon & Broer, Peter, 2003. "The budgeting and economic consequences of ageing in the Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 987-1013, September.
- K. Mc Morrow & W. Röger, 2002. "EU pension reform - An overview of the debate and an empirical assessment of the main policy reform options," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 162, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:464. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (J Bruusgaard)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.