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How Should Norway Respond to Ageing?

  • Pablo Antolín
  • Wim Suyker

Norway, like most OECD countries, will experience a significant ageing of its population, although it will be less dramatic. Moreover, it starts from an enviable position: employment rates of older people are among the highest in the OECD, pension outlays are currently relatively low and substantial financial assets have been accumulated in the Government Petroleum Fund. However, without reforms, due to the maturing of the pension system, ageing will lead to one of the biggest increases in pension spending as a share of GDP in OECD countries over the next 50 years. This paper thus, after exploring the scale of the demographic changes, examines the relevant institutions and their effect on the decision to retire. In light of the expected increase in the elderly, various issues concerning their economic position and health care are considered. The paper then presents the fiscal impact of ageing: the cost of the pension system will more than double, while health care spending for the ... En Norvège, comme dans la plupart des pays de l'OCDE, le vieillissement de la population posera un problème sérieux, mais il sera moins préoccupant qu'ailleurs. De plus, ce pays bénéficie d'une position de départ enviable : les taux d'emploi des personnes âgées sont parmi les plus élevés de la zone de l'OCDE, les dépenses au titre des pensions sont pour l'instant relativement faibles, et d'importants actifs financiers ont été accumulés au Fonds pétrolier de l'État. Néanmoins, du fait de la montée en régime du système de pensions, les dépenses à ce titre rapportées au PIB connaîtront, en raison du vieillissement de la population, l'une des augmentations les plus importantes de la zone de l'OCDE au cours des 50 prochaines années si rien n’est fait pour y remédier. C'est la raison pour laquelle, après avoir tenté de déterminer l'ampleur de l'évolution démographique, le présent document examine les institutions pertinentes et leur incidence sur la décision du départ en retraite. Compte ...

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Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 296.

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Date of creation: 17 May 2001
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:296-en
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