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The A-K Model: It's Past, Present, and Future

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  • Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Abstract

Almost two decades have passed since the development of the prototype of the Auerbach-Kotlikoff dynamic life-cycle simulation model. The model has been used to examine a host of policies, including tax reform, tax cuts, investment incentives, tax progressivity, expansion of social security, government spending, monetary policy, endogenous growth, the size of the informal sector, human capital accumulation, and educational policy. It has also been used to study demographic change, the timing of policy impacts, the efficiency gains from fiscal reforms, and the effects of fiscal policies on both the intra- and intergenerational distributions of economic welfare. Auerbach and Kotlikoff and their co-authors have done much of this research. The rest has been done by other economists in academia, government, and multilateral lending institutions, many of whom have developed their own versions of the model. This paper describes the origins of the A-K Model, its current structure, the lessons learned using it, and some of the questions that remain to be addressed. It also considers two issues -- tax reform and social security privatization -- in illustrating the model's current capacities.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1998. "The A-K Model: It's Past, Present, and Future," NBER Working Papers 6684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6684
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    10. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Catalán, Mario & Guajardo, Jaime & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2010. "Coping with Spain's aging: retirement rules and incentives," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 549-581, October.
    2. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    3. Erosa, Andres & Gervais, Martin, 2002. "Optimal Taxation in Life-Cycle Economies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 338-369, August.
    4. Jacques Le Cacheux & Vincent Touzé, 2002. "Les modèles d'équilibre général calculable à générations imbriquées. Enjeux, méthodes et résultats," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 80(1), pages 87-113.
    5. Fullerton, Don & Metcalf, Gilbert E., 2002. "Tax incidence," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 26, pages 1787-1872, Elsevier.
    6. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Florian Heiss & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2003. "Pension Reform, Capital Markets and the Rate of Return," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4(2), pages 151-181, May.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Spain: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2005/057, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2001. "Aging and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 8553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. MERTENS, Jean-François & RUBINCHIK, Anna, 2006. "Intergenerational equity and the discount rate for cost-benefit analysis," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2006091, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    10. Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Moment estimation in Auerbach-Kotlikoff models: How well do they match the data?," MEA discussion paper series 05093, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    11. Tobias Rasmussen, 2003. "Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Abatement: An Overlapping Generations Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 99-119, January.
    12. Peichl, Andreas, 2005. "Die Evaluation von Steuerreformen durch Simulationsmodelle," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 05-1, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    13. Carlos Renato Salami & Adelar Fochezatto, 2004. "Políticas Fiscais E Seus Efeitos De Longo Prazo No Brasil: Aplicação De Um Modelo De Equilíbrio Geral Com Gerações Sobrepostas," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 035, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    14. Richard L. Johnson, 2001. "Fiscal reaction rules in numerical macro models," Research Working Paper RWP 01-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    15. Barbara Berkel & Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2004. "Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(1), pages 71-90, February.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2091 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Kiichi Tokuoka, 2012. "Intergenerational Implications of Fiscal Consolidation in Japan," IMF Working Papers 2012/197, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Mr. Willy A Hoffmaister & Mr. Jaime Guajardo & Mr. Mario Catalan, 2008. "Global Aging and Declining World Interest Rates: Macroeconomic Insurance Through Pension Reform in Cyprus," IMF Working Papers 2008/098, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Zodrow, George R. & Diamond, John W., 2013. "Dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium Models and the Analysis of Tax Policy: The Diamond–Zodrow Model," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 743-813, Elsevier.
    20. Mehdi Ben Braham, 2006. "Pension reform in emerging countries: Simulations on the Tunisian case," NFI Working Papers 2006-WP-06, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    21. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2091 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2091 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Andres Erosa & Martin Gervais, 2001. "Optimal taxation in infinitely-lived agent and overlapping generations models : a review," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 23-44.

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    JEL classification:

    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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