IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedkrw/rwp01-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal reaction rules in numerical macro models

Author

Listed:
  • Richard L. Johnson

Abstract

To avoid exploding government debt, numerical macro models require ?fiscal reaction rules?. Present rules impose arbitrary, backward-looking reaction of taxes to deviations of the debt ratio from a target. Arbitrary models may be poor guides to monetary policy. An optimising fiscal policy-maker would look forward, and maximise an objective function. A simple optimising model implies the future tax rate should be constant. I implement the constant-future-tax rule in the IMF?s MULTIMOD model. Simulations show model outcomes? sensitivity to the choice of fiscal rule. A constant tax rate induces smoother and hence preferable consumption paths to MULTIMOD?s existing rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard L. Johnson, 2001. "Fiscal reaction rules in numerical macro models," Research Working Paper RWP 01-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp01-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/5419/pdf-RWP01-01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 1997. "QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 123, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    3. Andrew T. Levin & John H. Rogers & Ralph W. Tryon, 1997. "A guide to FRB/Global," International Finance Discussion Papers 588, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Frederico Finan & Robert J. Tetlow, 1999. "Optimal control of large, forward-looking models efficient solutions and two examples," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1998. "The A-K Model: It's Past, Present, and Future," NBER Working Papers 6684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Anderson, Gary S., 2010. "A reliable and computationally efficient algorithm for imposing the saddle point property in dynamic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 472-489, March.
    7. Mitchell, Peter R. & Sault, Joanne E. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2000. "Fiscal policy rules in macroeconomic models: principles and practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-193, April.
    8. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Term structure views of monetary policy under alternative models of agent expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 149-184, January.
    9. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    10. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Optimal Debt Management," NBER Working Papers 5327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Margarida Duarte & Alexander L. Wolman, 2002. "Regional inflation in a currency union: fiscal policy vs. fundamentals," International Finance Discussion Papers 746, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Markus Leibrecht & Martin Schneider, 2006. "AQM-06: The Macro economic Model of the OeNB," Working Papers 132, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    3. Duarte, Margarida & Wolman, Alexander L., 2008. "Fiscal policy and regional inflation in a currency union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 384-401, March.
    4. Jan Willem Van den End, 2016. "A macroprudential approach to address liquidity risk with the loan-to-deposit ratio," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 237-253, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Perez, Javier J. & Hiebert, Paul, 2004. "Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 1073-1089, December.
    2. Perez, Javier J. & Hiebert, Paul, 2004. "Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 1073-1089, December.
    3. Pintér, Gábor, 2022. "The procyclicality of inflation-linked debt," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    4. Robert Barro, 2003. "Optimal Management of Indexed and Nominal Debt," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, May.
    5. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2019. "Commodity prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite a rule," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 161-180, March.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3221 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann & Roberto Perotti & Ernesto Talvi, 1996. "Managing Fiscal Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Volatility, Procyclicality, and Limited Creditworthiness," Research Department Publications 4032, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    8. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2014. "Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails," Working Papers 720, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    9. Panizza, Ugo & Fatás, Antonio & Ghosh, Atish R. & ,, 2019. "The Motives to Borrow," CEPR Discussion Papers 13735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Niepelt, Dirk, 2014. "Debt maturity without commitment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S), pages 37-54.
    11. Ghada Abbas, 2006. "Gestion de la dette publique et lissage des taux d’imposition," CAE Working Papers 46, Aix-Marseille Université, CERGAM.
    12. Joshua Aizenman & Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 2001. "Optimal tax and debt policy with endogenously imperfect creditworthiness," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 367-395.
    13. Jérôme Creel, 2002. "Strategic interactions between monetary and fiscal policies: a case study for the European Stability Pact," Post-Print hal-00972776, HAL.
    14. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3221 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2006. "Modern Macroeconomics in Practice: How Theory Is Shaping Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 3-28, Fall.
    16. Torben M. Andersen & Robert R. Dogonowski, 2004. "What Should Optimal Income Taxes Smooth?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 6(3), pages 491-507, August.
    17. Laura Alfaro & Fabio Kanczuk, 2009. "Debt Maturity: Is Long‐Term Debt Optimal?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 890-905, November.
    18. Gradus, R.H.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 1991. "Optimal taxation on profit and pollution with a macroeconomic framework," Research Memorandum FEW 484, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Johannes Holler, 2013. "Funding Strategies of Sovereign Debt Management: A Risk Focus," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 51-74.
    20. V. V. Chari, 1988. "Time consistency and optimal policy design," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 17-31.
    21. Gradus, R.H.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 1992. "On time-inconsistency and pollution control : A macroeconomic approach," Research Memorandum FEW 546, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    22. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong & Wickens, Michael & Zhu, Zheyi, 2022. "The eurozone: What is to be done to maintain macro and financial stability?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Debt;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp01-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Zach Kastens (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbkcus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.