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Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models

In this paper, we present a model-based method for identifying fiscal closure rules in stochastic macroeconomic models. The methodology is based on the stability analysis of the model at hand, with an endogenous derivation of a reaction on the part of the fiscal authority to state variables in the model. The rule achieves the dual aim of imposing solvency on the fiscal sector and generating a state-contingent dynamic adjustment in a framework consistent with the properties of the model. Up to now, fiscal rules in leading large-scale macroeconomic forecasting models have been imposed exogenously, and in this sense are not necessarily compatible with the formulation of other sectors of these models. An example of the derivation procedure, including some illustrative results, is provided using a small calibrated macro model.

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Paper provided by Centro de Estudios Andaluces in its series Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces with number E2002/06.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cea:doctra:e2002_06
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  1. McAdam, Peter & Hughes Hallett, A J, 1999. " Nonlinearity, Computational Complexity and Macroeconomic Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 577-618, December.
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  7. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 1999. "Simplicity versus optimality the choice of monetary policy rules when agents must learn," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Chari, V V & Christiano, Lawrence J & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1994. "Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(4), pages 617-52, August.
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  10. Juillard, Michel & Laxton, Douglas & McAdam, Peter & Pioro, Hope, 1998. "An algorithm competition: First-order iterations versus Newton-based techniques," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1291-1318, August.
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  13. Bryant, R.C. & Zhang, L., 1996. "Intertemporal Fiscal Policy in Macro-Economic Models: Introduction and Major Alternatives," Papers 123, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
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  18. Ralph C. Bryant & Long Zhang, 1996. "Alternative Specifications of Intertemporal Fiscal Policy in a Small Theoretical Model," Discussion Papers 124, Brookings Institution International Economics.
  19. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  20. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  21. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Bart Turtelboom & Peter Isard & Eswar Prasad, 1998. "Multimod Mark III: The Core Dynamic and Steady State Model," IMF Occasional Papers 164, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Christopher A. Sims, 1989. "Solving nonlinear stochastic optimization and equilibrium problems backwards," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 15, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  23. Eric M. Leeper, 1993. "The policy tango: toward a holistic view of monetary and fiscal effects," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jul, pages 1-27.
  24. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
  25. Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2000. "The Limits to Discretionary Fiscal Stabilization Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 92-105, Winter.
  26. Laurence Seidman, 2001. "Reviving Fiscal Policy," Challenge, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(3), pages 17-42, May.
  27. Johnson, Richard, 2003. "A comparison of the constant-tax rule and a standard fiscal reaction rule in the IMF's MULTIMOD model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 639-653, September.
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