IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/1012.html

It takes two: Fiscal and monetary policy in Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Ana Aguilar
  • Carlos Cantú
  • Claudia Ramírez

Abstract

We model the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy and qualify their effects in a semi-structural small open economy model calibrated for Mexico. In our model, fiscal and monetary policy follow rules tied to specific targets. We estimate how fiscal policy, through deficits and public debt accumulation, and monetary policy, through the interest rate, directly affect the economy. We study the nature of the feedback between policy decisions and examine their indirect effects through the sovereign risk channel. We find that the response of monetary policy to stabilise the economy after a shock depends on how strict is the fiscal rule. A loose fiscal stance pushes a tighter monetary policy stance. Instead, the economy recovers faster when monetary and fiscal policy complement each other.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Aguilar & Carlos Cantú & Claudia Ramírez, 2022. "It takes two: Fiscal and monetary policy in Mexico," BIS Working Papers 1012, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1012.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1012.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Anticipated Ramsey Reforms and the Uniform Taxation Principle: the Role of International Financial Markets," Departmental Working Papers 200210, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    2. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    3. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    4. Paolo Zagaglia, 2002. "On (Sub)Optimal Monetary Policy Rules under Untied Fiscal Hands," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 219-248.
    5. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. José J. Sidaoui & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2008. "The monetary transmission mechanism in Mexico: recent developments," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 363-394, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Ms. Selma Mahfouz & Mr. Richard Hemming & Mr. Michael Kell, 2002. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity: A Review of the Literature," IMF Working Papers 2002/208, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Atish R. Ghosh & Jun I. Kim & Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2013. "Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 4-30, February.
    9. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy: A Linear-Quadratic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 271-364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    12. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, February.
    13. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    14. Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-114, Spring.
    15. Perez, Javier J. & Hiebert, Paul, 2004. "Identifying endogenous fiscal policy rules for macroeconomic models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 1073-1089, December.
    16. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
    17. Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2000. "Interactions between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 93-108, March.
    18. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2013. "Sovereign Risk, Fiscal Policy, and Macroeconomic Stability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 99-132, February.
    19. Lizarazo, Sandra Valentina, 2013. "Default risk and risk averse international investors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 317-330.
    20. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 296-316, August.
    21. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2012. "A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 889-946.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muscatelli, V. Anton & Tirelli, Patrizio & Trecroci, Carmine, 2004. "Fiscal and monetary policy interactions: Empirical evidence and optimal policy using a structural New-Keynesian model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 257-280, June.
    2. Van Nguyen, Phuong, 2020. "The Vietnamese business cycle in an estimated small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model," Dynare Working Papers 56, CEPREMAP.
    3. Okano, Eiji & Inagaki, Kazuyuki, 2025. "Understanding the gains from wage flexibility in a currency union: a fiscal policy connection," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29, pages 1-1, January.
    4. Okano, Eiji & Inagaki, Kazuyuki & Eguchi, Masataka, 2024. "Revisiting the fiscal theory of sovereign risk from a DSGE viewpoint," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2016. "Fiscal consolidation under imperfect credibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 108-141.
    6. Javier Andrés & Pablo Burriel & Wenyi Shen, 2020. "Debt sustainability and fiscal space in a heterogeneous Monetary Union: normal times vs the zero lower bound," Working Papers 2001, Banco de España.
    7. Huixin Bi & Ms. Wenyi Shen & Ms. Susan S. Yang, 2014. "Fiscal Limits, External Debt, and Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2014/049, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: In Search of Improvements and Adaptation to the Open Economy," Economics wp31_tjorvi, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    9. Patrizio Tirelli & V. Anton Muscatelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2004. "The interaction of fiscal and monetary policies: some evidence using structural econometric models'," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 103, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    10. Igor Vetlov & Tibor Hlédik & Magnus Jonsson & Henrik Kucsera & Massimiliano Pisani, 2011. "Potential Output in DSGE Models," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 9, Bank of Lithuania.
    11. Taylor, J.B., 2016. "The Staying Power of Staggered Wage and Price Setting Models in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2009-2042, Elsevier.
    12. Georgios Palaiodimos & Dimitris Papageorgiou, 2025. "VAT rate shocks and inflation: a theoretical and empirical analysis for Greece," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 61, pages 7-32, July.
    13. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trescroci, 2003. "Fiscal and Monetary policy Interactions in a New Keynesian Model with Liquidity Constraints," Working Papers 2005_19, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Apr 2005.
    14. Giancarlo Corsetti & Fred Seunghyun Maeng, 2024. "Debt Crises, Fast and Slow," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(5), pages 2148-2179.
    15. Ricardo Sabbadini, 2018. "Loss Aversion and Search for Yield in Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2018_16, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    16. Bhavesh Salunkhe & Anuradha Patnaik, 2018. "The IS Curve and Monetary Policy Transmission in India: A New Keynesian Perspective," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(1), pages 41-66, February.
    17. Gopal K. Basak & Mrinal K. Ghosh & Diganta Mukherjee, 2019. "A Stochastic Model with Inflation, Growth and Technology for the Political Business Cycle," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(1), pages 125-140, January.
    18. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2012. "A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 889-946.
    19. Walsh, Carl E, 2003. "Accountability, Transparency, and Inflation Targeting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 829-849, October.
    20. Markus Kirchner & Malte Rieth, 2021. "Sovereign Default Risk, Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Monetary–Fiscal Stabilization," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 391-426, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.