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Sovereign default risk, macroeconomic fluctuations and monetary-fiscal stabilisation

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  • Kirchner, Markus
  • Rieth, Malte

Abstract

This paper examines the role of sovereign default beliefs for macroeconomic fluctuations and stabilisation policy in a small open economy where fiscal solvency is a critical problem. We set up and estimate a DSGE model on Turkish data and show that accounting for sovereign risk significantly improves the fit of the model through an endogenous amplication between default beliefs, exchange rate and inflation movements. We then use the estimated model to study the implications of sovereign risk for stability, fiscal and monetary policy, and their interaction. We find that a relatively strong fiscal feedback from deficits to taxes, some exchange rate targeting, or a monetary response to default premia are more effective and efficient stabilisation tools than hawkish inflation targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirchner, Markus & Rieth, Malte, 2020. "Sovereign default risk, macroeconomic fluctuations and monetary-fiscal stabilisation," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:222020
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    small open economies; sovereign risk; monetary policy; exchange rates; business cycles; DSGE models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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