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Sovereign risk and belief-driven fluctuations in the euro area

Author Info

  • Corsetti, Giancarlo
  • Kuester, Keith
  • Meier, André
  • Müller, Gernot J.

Abstract

Sovereign risk premia in several euro area countries have risen markedly since 2008, driving up credit spreads in the private sector as well. We propose a New Keynesian model of a two-region monetary union that accounts for this “sovereign risk channel.” The model is calibrated to the euro area as of mid-2012. We show that a combination of sovereign risk in one region and strongly procyclical fiscal policy at the aggregate level exacerbates the risk of belief-driven deflationary downturns. The model provides an argument in favor of coordinated, asymmetric fiscal stances as a way to prevent self-fulfilling debt crises.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 61 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 53-73

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:61:y:2014:i:c:p:53-73
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

Keywords: Sovereign risk channel; Monetary union; Euro area; Zero lower bound; Risk premium; Pooling of sovereign risk;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
  • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
  • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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  1. Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in'tVeld, 2012. "Fiscal Policy, Banks and the Financial Crisis," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-034, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Michael Woodford, 2011. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, January.
  3. Ugo Albertazzi & Tiziano Ropele & Gabriele Sene & Federico M. Signoretti, 2012. "The impact of the sovereign debt crisis on the activity of Italian banks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 133, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  4. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2013. "The Mystery of the Printing Press: Self-fulfilling debt crises and monetary sovereignty," CEPR Discussion Papers 9358, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
  6. Huixin Bi, 2011. "Sovereign Default Risk Premia, Fiscal Limits and Fiscal Policy," Staff Working Papers 11-10, Bank of Canada.
  7. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise if the Government Buys More Output?," NBER Working Papers 15496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Edda Zoli, 2013. "Italian Sovereign Spreads; Their Determinants and Pass-through to Bank Funding Costs and Lending Conditions," IMF Working Papers 13/84, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
  10. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116.
  11. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 9270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2009. "The Economics and Law of Sovereign Debt and Default," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 651-98, September.
  13. Serkan Arslanalp & Yin Liao, 2013. "Contingent Liabilities and Sovereign Risk: Evidence from Banking Sectors," CAMA Working Papers 2013-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  14. Curdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2015. "Credit frictions and optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2015-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, revised 10 Dec 2015.
  15. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela, 2007. "The Determinants of Corporate Risk in Emerging Markets: An Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6845, Inter-American Development Bank.
  16. Stefano Neri, 2013. "The impact of the sovereign debt crisis on bank lending rates in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 170, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  17. Keith Kuester & Gernot J. Mueller & Giancarlo Corsetti & Andre Meier, 2012. "Sovereign Risk, Fiscal Policy, and Macroeconomic Stability," IMF Working Papers 12/33, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
  19. Yeyati, Eduardo Levy & Panizza, Ugo, 2011. "The elusive costs of sovereign defaults," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 95-105, January.
  20. Robert Kollmann & Werner Roeger & Jan in't Veld, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Financial Crisis: Standard Policy versus Bank Rescue Measures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 77-81, May.
  21. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
  22. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-61, September.
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Cited by:

  1. Cizkowicz, Piotr & Rzonca, Andrzej & Trzeciakowski, Rafal, 2015. "Membership in the Euro area and fiscal sustainability. Analysis through panel fiscal reaction functions," MPRA Paper 61560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Kobielarz, Michal L. & Uras, Rasim Burak, 2015. "Sovereign Debt, Bail-Outs and Contagion in a Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 10459, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2g7mhju69b94obeaqlen09s1au is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Mats Persson, 2016. "Debts, Deficits and Multiple Equilibria: A New Role for ECB Monetary Policy?," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(1), pages 63-71, 04.
  5. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Rafał Trzeciakowski, 2015. "Windfall of Low Interest Payments and Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Analysis through Panel Fiscal Reaction Functions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 475-510, November.
  6. Dennis Bonam & Jasper Lukkezen, 2014. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination, Macroeconomic Stability, and Sovereign Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-006/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
  7. Bhattarai, Saroj & Lee, Jae Won & Park, Woong Yong, 2015. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency union with interest rate spreads," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 375-397.
  8. Müller, Gernot Johannes & Hettig, Thomas & Mueller, Gernot, 2015. "Fiscal policy coordination in currency unions (at the zero lower bound)," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112826, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  9. Thomas Brand & Fabien Tripier, 2014. "Risk shocks and divergence between the Euro area and the US," Working Papers 2014-11, CEPII research center.
  10. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudre & Danielle Schweisguth & Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Fiscal consolidation in times of crisis: is the sooner really the better?," Post-Print hal-00980392, HAL.
  11. Andre Diniz & Bernardo Guimaraes, 2014. "Financial disruption as a cost of soverign default: a quantative assessment," Discussion Papers 1427, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

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