IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Banking and Sovereign Debt Crises in Monetary Union Without Central Bank Intervention

Listed author(s):
  • Jin Cheng
  • Meixing Dai
  • Frédéric Dufourt

We propose a model to analyze the conditions of emergence of a twin banking and sovereign debt crisis in a monetary union with an institutional framework which is broadly similar to the Eurozone at the onset of the financial crisis. We show that when the responsibility of rescuing the banking system is entirely ascribed to domestic governments - in particular because the central bank is not allowed to intervene as a lender of last resort on sovereign bond markets - the main tool to fight against a systemic banking crisis (the financial safety net) may aggravate, instead of mitigate, the solvency problems of banks and of the government. Depending on investors' expectations, the banking system and the government may either survive a negative financial shock or fail together. In this context of negative self-fulfilling expectations, we also analyze the role of credit rating agencies as potential catalysts to the crisis, we emphasize possible contagion effects to "healthy" member states through the banking system, and we discuss proposed policy options like the creation of "Eurobonds" to avoid the resurgence of such crises.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.beta-umr7522.fr/productions/publications/2014/2014-05.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg in its series Working Papers of BETA with number 2014-05.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2014
Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2014-05
Contact details of provider: Postal:
PEGE. 61, Aven. de la Forêt-Noire 67000 Strasbourg

Phone: +33 3 68 85 20 69
Fax: +33 3 68 85 20 70
Web page: http://www.beta-umr7522.fr/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Emmanuel Farhi & Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki, 2011. "Fiscal Devaluations," NBER Working Papers 17662, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Martin & Stefano Rossi, 2009. "Sovereign default, domestic banks and financial institutions," Economics Working Papers 1170, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2012.
  3. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2012. "The Euro's Three Crises," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 157-231.
  4. Patrick Bolton & Olivier Jeanne, 2011. "Sovereign Default Risk and Bank Fragility in Financially Integrated Economies," NBER Working Papers 16899, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2016. "The "Mystery of the Printing Press" Monetary Policy and Self-fulfilling Debt Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 11089, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Javier García-Cicco & Roberto Pancrazi & Martín Uribe, 2006. "Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?," NBER Working Papers 12629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2009. "Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open economy model," Working Paper Series WP-09-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  8. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-419, June.
  9. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00112535 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
  11. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2012. "Self-Fulfilling Crises in the Eurozone. An Empirical Test," CAMA Working Papers 2012-37, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  12. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
  13. Amable, Bruno & Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & De Bandt, Olivier, 2002. "Optimal capacity in the banking sector and economic growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 491-517, March.
  14. Holmstrom, B & Tirole, J, 1996. "Private and Public Supply of Liquidity," Working papers 96-21, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  15. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:44:y:2012:i:2012-01:p:157-231 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Viral V. Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2011. "A Pyrrhic Victory? - Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," NBER Working Papers 17136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Eric M. Leeper, 2013. "Fiscal Limits and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 18877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun, pages -.
  19. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2011. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Working Papers 2012-004, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  20. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1998. "Self-fulfilling debt crises," Staff Report 211, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  21. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
  22. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  23. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2000. "Banks, Short Term Debt and Financial Crises: Theory, Policy Implications and Applications," NBER Working Papers 7764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-661, September.
  25. Viral V. Acharya & Sascha Steffen, 2013. "The "Greatest" Carry Trade Ever? Understanding Eurozone Bank Risks," NBER Working Papers 19039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Paul De Grauwe, 2011. "Managing a Fragile Eurozone," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(2), pages 40-45, 07.
  27. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2007. "Systemic Risk and Regulation," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 341-376 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Zhanwei Z. Yue & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2011. "A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 11/166, International Monetary Fund.
  29. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2001. "A Model of Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(2), pages 489-517.
  30. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
  31. Brutti, Filippo, 2011. "Sovereign defaults and liquidity crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 65-72, May.
  32. Acharya, Viral V. & Steffen, Sascha, 2015. "The “greatest” carry trade ever? Understanding eurozone bank risks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 215-236.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2014-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.