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Sovereigns at risk: A dynamic model of sovereign debt and banking leverage

Author

Listed:
  • Nuno Coimbra

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic model with heterogeneous investors and sovereign default to analyze the dynamic link between banking sector capitalization and sovereign bond yields. The banking sector is modelled as operating under a Value-at-Risk (VaR) constraint, which can bind occasionally. As default risk rises, the constraint may bind, generating a fall in demand for sovereign bonds that can be accompanied by a rise in the risk premium if other agents are more risk averse. In turn, the rise in risk premium leads to a feedback effect through debt accumulation dynamics and the probability of government default.

Suggested Citation

  • Nuno Coimbra, 2020. "Sovereigns at risk: A dynamic model of sovereign debt and banking leverage," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-02491806, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-02491806
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103298
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau & Richard Portes, 2014. "Nonlinearities in sovereign risk pricing the role of cds index contracts," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03460263, HAL.
    2. Gilchrist, Simon & Wei, Bin & Yue, Vivian Z. & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2022. "Sovereign risk and financial risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    3. Liubov Lysiak & Iuliia Masiuk & Anatolii Chynchyk & Olena Yudina & Oleksandr Olshanskiy & Valentyna Shevchenko, 2022. "Banking Risks in the Asset and Liability Management System," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-18, June.
    4. Florent Kanga GBONGUE & Lambert N’Galadjo BAMBA, 2023. "Le modèle hybride de la structure par terme des primes souveraines de crédit et de liquidité dans la zone UEMOA," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 57, pages 101-145.
    5. Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau & Richard Portes, 2017. "Regime-Dependent Sovereign Risk Pricing During the Euro Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 363-385.
    6. Nicholas Apergis & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi, 2015. "Systemic Sovereign Risk and Asset Prices: Evidence from the CDS Market, Stressed European Economies and Nonlinear Causality Tests," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(2), pages 106-126, April.
    7. Hürtgen, Patrick, 2020. "Fiscal sustainability duringthe COVID-19 pandemic," Discussion Papers 35/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Sewon Hur & César Sosa-Padilla & Zeynep Yom, 2021. "Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises," Globalization Institute Working Papers 406, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 27 Feb 2024.
    9. Nuno Coimbra & Hélène Rey, 2024. "Financial Cycles with Heterogeneous Intermediaries," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(2), pages 817-857.
    10. Rojas, Luis E. & Thaler, Dominik, 2024. "The bright side of the doom loop: Banks’ sovereign exposure and default incentives," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    11. Elena Gerko & Hélène Rey, 2017. "Monetary Policy in the Capitals of Capital," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 721-745.
    12. Willi Semmler & Christian R. Proaño, 2015. "Escape Routes from Sovereign Default Risk in the Euro Area," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons, volume 24, pages 163-193, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6b3bdv9unt9mspi3ri2ff917d6 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau & Richard Portes, 2017. "Regime-Dependent Sovereign Risk Pricing During the Euro Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 363-385.
    15. Manabu Nose, 2025. "Determinants of Domestic Sovereign Bond Yields: Fiscal Policy and the Sovereign–Bank Nexus in Emerging Market and Developing Economies," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series DP2025-022, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    16. Hélène Rey, 2016. "International Channels of Transmission of Monetary Policy and the Mundellian Trilemma," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(1), pages 6-35, May.
    17. Torres, Leonardo Barros & Paczos, Wojtek & Shakhnov,, 2024. "Domestic and Foreign Sovereign Debt Stability," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2024/8, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    18. D’Erasmo, Pablo & Livshits, Igor & Schoors, Koen, 2024. "Banking regulation with risk of sovereign default," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    19. Fueki, Takuji & Hürtgen, Patrick & Walker, Todd B., 2024. "Zero-risk weights and capital misallocation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

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