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Regime-Dependent Sovereign Risk Pricing During the Euro Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Portes
  • Julien Fouquau
  • Anne-Laure Delatte

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Previous work has documented a greater sensitivity of long-term government bond yields to fundamentals in euro area peripheral countries during the euro crisis, but we know little about the driver(s) of regime switches. Our estimates based on a panel smooth threshold regression model quantify and explain them: (1) investors have penalized a deterioration of fundamentals more strongly from 2010 to 2012; (2) the higher the bank credit risk, measured with the premium on credit derivatives, the higher the extra premium on fundamentals; (3) after ECB President Draghi's speech in July 2012, it took 1 year to restore the noncrisis regime and suppress the extra premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Portes & Julien Fouquau & Anne-Laure Delatte, 2017. "Regime-Dependent Sovereign Risk Pricing During the Euro Crisis," Post-Print hal-01663123, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01663123
    DOI: 10.1093/rof/rfw050
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European sovereign crisis; Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models; CDS indices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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