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Regime-Dependent Sovereign Risk Pricing During the Euro Crisis

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  • Richard Portes
  • Julien Fouquau
  • Anne-Laure Delatte

    () (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Previous work has documented a greater sensitivity of long-term government bond yields to fundamentals in euro area peripheral countries during the euro crisis, but we know little about the driver(s) of regime switches. Our estimates based on a panel smooth threshold regression model quantify and explain them: (1) investors have penalized a deterioration of fundamentals more strongly from 2010 to 2012; (2) the higher the bank credit risk, measured with the premium on credit derivatives, the higher the extra premium on fundamentals; (3) after ECB President Draghi's speech in July 2012, it took 1 year to restore the noncrisis regime and suppress the extra premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Portes & Julien Fouquau & Anne-Laure Delatte, 2017. "Regime-Dependent Sovereign Risk Pricing During the Euro Crisis," Post-Print hal-01663123, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01663123
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01663123
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    Cited by:

    1. Afonso, António & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gadea, María Dolores & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2018. "“Whatever it takes” to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis? Bond pricing regime switches and monetary policy effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-30.
    2. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Yang, Yukai, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2017.
    3. Delatte, Anne-Laure & Guillaume, Alexis, 2020. "Covid 19: a new challenge for the EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 14848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2017. "The Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix in the Euro Area: Challenges at the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 12039, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Orkun Saka, 2019. "Domestic Banks as Lightning Rods? Home Bias and Information during the Eurozone Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 7939, CESifo.
    6. Axelle Arquié & Jérôme Héricourt & Fabien Tripier, 2020. "Covid-19: Has the Time Come for Mainstream Macroeconomics to Rehabilitate Money Printing?," CEPII Policy Brief 2020-31, CEPII research center.
    7. Juan Ángel Lafuente & Nuria Petit & Jesús Ruiz & Pedro Serrano, 2020. "Dissecting interbank risk using basis swap spreads," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 729-757, March.
    8. Ge, S., 2020. "A Revisit to Sovereign Risk Contagion in Eurozone with Mutual Exciting Regime-Switching Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20114, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Axelle Arquié & Jérôme Hericourt & Fabien Tripier, 2020. "Covid-19: Has the Time Come for Mainstream Macroeconomics to Rehabilitate Money Printing," Post-Print hal-03134891, HAL.
    10. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros M. Migiakis, 2018. "Risk perceptions and fundamental effects on sovereign spreads," Working Papers 250, Bank of Greece.
    11. Michael G. Arghyrou & Maria Dolores Gadea, 2019. "Private bank deposits and macro/fiscal risk in the euro-area," CESifo Working Paper Series 7532, CESifo.
    12. Sinem Hacıoğlu Hoke & George Kapetanios, 2021. "Common correlated effect cross‐sectional dependence corrections for nonlinear conditional mean panel models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 125-150, January.
    13. Alessi, Lucia & Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Savona, Roberto, 2019. "Anatomy of a Sovereign Debt Crisis: CDS Spreads and Real-Time Macroeconomic Data," Working Papers 2019-03, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
    14. repec:hal:journl:hal-03141372 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Aurelien, Njamen Kengdo Arsene & Nchofoung, Tii Njivukuh & Marcel, Takoulac Kamta & Jean-Claude, Kouladoum, 2019. "Non-linear effect of military spending on economic growth in Africa: A comparative study between stable and unstable countries," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 195-215.
    16. Benbouzid, Nadia & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2017. "An international forensic perspective of the determinants of bank CDS spreads," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 60-70.
    17. Samir Kadiric, 2020. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: The impact of Brexit," EIIW Discussion paper disbei271, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    18. Afonso, António & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gadea, María Dolores & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2018. "“Whatever it takes” to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis? Bond pricing regime switches and monetary policy effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-30.
    19. Lafuente Luengo, Juan Ángel & Serrano Jiménez, Pedro José & Petit, Nuria, 2017. "Dissecting interbank risk," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 24553, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    20. Niels Gilbert, 2019. "Euro area sovereign risk spillovers before and after the ECB's OMT announcement," DNB Working Papers 636, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    21. Afonso, António & Tovar Jalles, João, 2019. "Quantitative easing and sovereign yield spreads: Euro-area time-varying evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 208-224.
    22. Orkun Saka, 2020. "Domestic Banks As Lightning Rods? Home Bias and Information during the Eurozone Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S1), pages 273-305, October.
    23. Saka, Orkun, 2019. "Domestic banks as lightning rods? Home bias and information during Eurozone crisis," Research Discussion Papers 3/2019, Bank of Finland.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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