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Sovereigns at risk: A dynamic model of sovereign debt and banking leverage

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  • Coimbra, Nuno

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic model with heterogeneous investors and sovereign default to analyze the dynamic link between banking sector capitalization and sovereign bond yields. The banking sector is modelled as operating under a Value-at-Risk (VaR) constraint, which can bind occasionally. As default risk rises, the constraint may bind, generating a fall in demand for sovereign bonds that can be accompanied by a rise in the risk premium if other agents are more risk averse. In turn, the rise in risk premium leads to a feedback effect through debt accumulation dynamics and the probability of government default.

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  • Coimbra, Nuno, 2020. "Sovereigns at risk: A dynamic model of sovereign debt and banking leverage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:124:y:2020:i:c:s0022199620300179
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103298
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    5. Rojas, Luis E. & Thaler, Dominik, 2024. "The bright side of the doom loop: Banks’ sovereign exposure and default incentives," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    6. Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau & Richard Portes, 2017. "Regime-Dependent Sovereign Risk Pricing During the Euro Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 363-385.
    7. Nicholas Apergis & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi, 2015. "Systemic Sovereign Risk and Asset Prices: Evidence from the CDS Market, Stressed European Economies and Nonlinear Causality Tests," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(2), pages 106-126, April.
    8. Hürtgen, Patrick, 2020. "Fiscal sustainability duringthe COVID-19 pandemic," Discussion Papers 35/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Sewon Hur & César Sosa-Padilla & Zeynep Yom, 2021. "Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises," Globalization Institute Working Papers 406, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 27 Feb 2024.
    10. Nuno Coimbra & Hélène Rey, 2024. "Financial Cycles with Heterogeneous Intermediaries," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(2), pages 817-857.
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    13. Willi Semmler & Christian R. Proaño, 2015. "Escape Routes from Sovereign Default Risk in the Euro Area," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons, volume 24, pages 163-193, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
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    16. D’Erasmo, Pablo & Livshits, Igor & Schoors, Koen, 2024. "Banking regulation with risk of sovereign default," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
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