IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fau/fauart/v65y2015i2p127-143.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Systemic Sovereign Risk and Asset Prices: Evidence from the CDS Market, Stressed European Economies and Nonlinear Causality Tests

Author

Listed:
  • Nicholas Apergis

    (Business School, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK)

  • Ahdi Noomen Ajmi

    (College of Science and Humanities in Slayel, Salman bin Abdulaziz University, KSA
    ESC de Tunis, Manouba University, Tunisia
    IPAG Lab, IPAG Business School, Paris)

Abstract

This empirical study attempts to measure the direction of effects related to systemic sovereign risk (i.e. proxied by CDS prices) on a number of asset prices in four heavily stressed European economies: Greece, Ireland, Italy and Spain. The paper is innovative in terms of addressing the drawbacks of linear causality by making use of both the Sato et al. (2007) methodological approach, which introduces time-varying vector autoregressive modeling, as well as the Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality test that explicitly introduces asymmetries in causality. The empirical findings suggest that the presence of CDS derivatives aggravated the prices in a number of assets. These results are associated with the overall negative environment in economies that experienced the sovereign debt crisis and had to go through a dramatic reduction in market liquidity as well as strict consolidation programs that led these markets to crash. The findings have important implications for the ongoing debate about how to reform the financial system so as to mitigate systemic risk in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Apergis & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi, 2015. "Systemic Sovereign Risk and Asset Prices: Evidence from the CDS Market, Stressed European Economies and Nonlinear Causality Tests," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(2), pages 106-126, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:65:y:2015:i:2:p:127-143
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1320_apergis.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. Hatemi-J, 2003. "A new method to choose optimal lag order in stable and unstable VAR models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 135-137.
    2. Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Martin & Stefano Rossi, 2014. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks, and Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 819-866, April.
    3. Gerlach, Stefan & Schulz, Alexander & Wolff, Guntram B., 2010. "Banking and sovereign risk in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2013. "Are banks too big to fail or too big to save? International evidence from equity prices and CDS spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 875-894.
    5. Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign CDS Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October.
    6. Acharya, Viral V. & Steffen, Sascha, 2015. "The “greatest” carry trade ever? Understanding eurozone bank risks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 215-236.
    7. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
    8. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
    9. John Geanakoplos & Ana Fostel, 2008. "Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1211-1244, September.
    10. Sato, Joao R. & Morettin, Pedro A. & Arantes, Paula R. & Amaro Jr., Edson, 2007. "Wavelet based time-varying vector autoregressive modelling," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(12), pages 5847-5866, August.
    11. Stephan Dieckmann & Thomas Plank, 2012. "Default Risk of Advanced Economies: An Empirical Analysis of Credit Default Swaps during the Financial Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 16(4), pages 903-934.
    12. William A. Allen & Richhild Moessner, 2013. "The Liquidity Consequences of the Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 14(1), pages 103-126, January.
    13. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 37-59.
    14. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2009. "More hedging instruments may destabilize markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1912-1928, November.
    15. Rodríguez-Moreno, María & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Systemic risk measures: The simpler the better?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1817-1831.
    16. Patrick Bolton & Martin Oehmke, 2011. "Credit Default Swaps and the Empty Creditor Problem," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(8), pages 2617-2655.
    17. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    18. Nuno Coimbra, 2019. "Sovereigns at Risk: A Dynamic Model of Sovereign Debt and Banking Leverage," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
    20. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "The Leverage Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 1-65, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Borgy, V. & Laubach, T. & Mésonnier, J-S. & Renne, J-P., 2011. "Fiscal Sustainability, Default Risk and Euro Area Sovereign Bond Spreads Markets," Working papers 350, Banque de France.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. RNuket Kirci Cevik & Sel Dibooglu & Ali M. Kutan, 2016. "Real and Financial Sector Studies in Central and Eastern Europe: A Review," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(1), pages 2-31, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau & Richard Portes, 2014. "Nonlinearities in Sovereign Risk Pricing: The Role of CDS Index Contracts," NBER Working Papers 19985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau & Richard Portes, 2017. "Regime-Dependent Sovereign Risk Pricing During the Euro Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 363-385.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13143 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau & Richard Portes, 2017. "Regime-Dependent Sovereign Risk Pricing During the Euro Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 363-385.
    5. Wu, Eliza & Erdem, Magdalena & Kalotychou, Elena & Remolona, Eli, 2016. "The anatomy of sovereign risk contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 264-286.
    6. Elena Kalotychou & Eli Remolona & Eliza Wu, 2014. "What Makes Systemic Risk Systemic? Contagion and Spillovers in the International Sovereign Debt Market," Working Papers 072014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    7. Bálint L. Horváth & Harry Huizinga, 2015. "Does the European Financial Stability Facility Bail Out Sovereigns or Banks? An Event Study," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 177-206, February.
    8. Ureche-Rangau, Loredana & Burietz, Aurore, 2013. "One crisis, two crises…the subprime crisis and the European sovereign debt problems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 35-44.
    9. Kizys, Renatas & Paltalidis, Nikos & Vergos, Konstantinos, 2016. "The quest for banking stability in the euro area: The role of government interventions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 111-133.
    10. Papafilis, Michalis-Panayiotis & Psillaki, Maria & Margaritis, Dimitris, 2015. "Interdependence between Sovereign and Bank CDS Spreads in Eurozone during the European Debt Crisis - The PSI Effect," MPRA Paper 68037, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. María Cantero Sáiz & Sergio Sanfilippo Azofra & Begoña Torre Olmo, 2019. "The single supervision mechanism and contagion between bank and sovereign risk," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 67-106, February.
    12. Mikhail Stolbov, 2017. "Assessing systemic risk and its determinants for advanced and major emerging economies: the case of ΔCoVaR," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 119-152, January.
    13. Yu, Sherry, 2017. "Sovereign and bank Interdependencies—Evidence from the CDS market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 68-84.
    14. Eichler, Stefan, 2015. "How Do Political Factors Shape the Bank Risk-Sovereign Risk Nexus in Emerging Markets?," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112877, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Fong, Tom Pak Wing & Li, Ka-Fai & Fu, John, 2018. "Accounting for sovereign tail risk in emerging economies: The role of global and domestic risk factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 98-110.
    16. Calice, Giovanni & Mio, RongHui & Štěrba, Filip & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Short-term determinants of the idiosyncratic sovereign risk premium: A regime-dependent analysis for European credit default swaps," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 174-189.
    17. Jeanneret, Alexandre, 2018. "Sovereign credit spreads under good/bad governance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 230-246.
    18. Böhm, Hannes & Eichler, Stefan, 2020. "Avoiding the fall into the loop: Isolating the transmission of bank-to-sovereign distress in the Euro Area," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    19. Kräussl, Roman & Lehnert, Thorsten & Stefanova, Denitsa, 2016. "The European sovereign debt crisis: What have we learned?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 363-373.
    20. Bruneau, Catherine & Delatte, Anne-Laure & Fouquau, Julien, 2014. "Was the European sovereign crisis self-fulfilling? Empirical evidence about the drivers of market sentiments," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 38-51.
    21. Cheng, Jin & Dai, Meixing & Dufourt, Frédéric, 2017. "Banking and sovereign debt crises in a monetary union without central bank intervention," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 142-151.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CDS prices; asset prices; economies in sovereign debt crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:65:y:2015:i:2:p:127-143. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/icunicz.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Natalie Svarcova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/icunicz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.