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Fear or fundamentals? Heterogeneous beliefs in the European sovereign CDS market

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  • Chiarella, Carl
  • ter Ellen, Saskia
  • He, Xue-Zhong
  • Wu, Eliza

Abstract

This paper proposes a model for credit default swap (CDS) spreads under heterogeneous expectations to explain the escalation in sovereign European CDS spreads and the widening variations across European sovereigns following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In our model, investors believe that sovereign CDS spreads are determined by country-specific fundamentals and momentum. By estimating the model we find evidence that, while some of the recent movements in sovereign CDS spreads can be explained by deteriorating fundamentals for core European Union (EU) countries, momentum has also played a destabilizing role since the GFC in all sovereign credit markets studied.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiarella, Carl & ter Ellen, Saskia & He, Xue-Zhong & Wu, Eliza, 2015. "Fear or fundamentals? Heterogeneous beliefs in the European sovereign CDS market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 19-34.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:32:y:2015:i:c:p:19-34
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2014.11.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2017. "The adaptiveness in stock markets: testing the stylized facts in the DAX 30," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1071-1094, November.
    2. repec:eee:dyncon:v:80:y:2017:i:c:p:101-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Kim, Suk-Joong & Salem, Leith & Wu, Eliza, 2015. "The role of macroeconomic news in sovereign CDS markets: Domestic and spillover news effects from the U.S., the Eurozone and China," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 208-224.
    4. Wu, Eliza & Erdem, Magdalena & Kalotychou, Elena & Remolona, Eli, 2016. "The anatomy of sovereign risk contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 264-286.
    5. Zheng, Min & Liu, Ruipeng & Li, Youwei, 2018. "Long memory in financial markets: A heterogeneous agent model perspective," MPRA Paper 84886, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Hommes, Cars & in ’t Veld, Daan, 2017. "Booms, busts and behavioural heterogeneity in stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 101-124.
    7. repec:eee:dyncon:v:85:y:2017:i:c:p:21-45 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2017. "Estimation of financial agent-based models with simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 21-45.
    9. repec:pal:assmgt:v:17:y:2016:i:5:d:10.1057_jam.2016.20 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign credit risk; European debt crisis; Heterogeneous beliefs; Momentum; CDS pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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