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Heterogeneous Expectations in Asset Pricing: Empirical Evidence from the S&P500

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Abstract

This paper empirically assesses heterogeneous expectations in asset pricing. We use a maximum likelihood approach on S&P500 data to estimate a structural model. Our empirical results are consistent with a market populated with fundamentalists and chartists. In addition, agents switch between these groups conditional on their previous performance. The results imply that the model can explain the ináation and deáation of bubbles. Finally, the model is shown to be in the deterministically stable region, but produces stochastic bubbles of similar length and magnitude as empirically observed.

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  • Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2014. "Heterogeneous Expectations in Asset Pricing: Empirical Evidence from the S&P500," Research Paper Series 344, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:344
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    Cited by:

    1. Anufriev, Mikhail & Bao, Te & Tuinstra, Jan, 2016. "Microfoundations for switching behavior in heterogeneous agent models: An experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 74-99.
    2. Xue-Zhong He & Youwei Li, 2017. "The adaptiveness in stock markets: testing the stylized facts in the DAX 30," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1071-1094, November.
    3. Immonen, Eero, 2015. "A quantitative description for efficient financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 433(C), pages 171-181.
    4. repec:eee:dyncon:v:80:y:2017:i:c:p:101-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Jackson, Antony & Ladley, Daniel, 2016. "Market ecologies: The effect of information on the interaction and profitability of technical trading strategies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 270-280.
    6. Reitz, Stefan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2015. "Nonlinear Expectation Formation in the U.S. Stock Market," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113210, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Pierdzioch, Christian & Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan-Christoph, 2015. "Nonlinear expectation formation in the U.S. stock market: Empirical evidence from the Livingston survey," Kiel Working Papers 1947 [rev.], Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    8. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2011. "The dynamic behaviour of asset prices in disequilibrium: a survey," International Journal of Behavioural Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(2), pages 101-139.
    9. Chiarella, Carl & ter Ellen, Saskia & He, Xue-Zhong & Wu, Eliza, 2015. "Fear or fundamentals? Heterogeneous beliefs in the European sovereign CDS market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 19-34.
    10. Zheng, Min & Liu, Ruipeng & Li, Youwei, 2018. "Long memory in financial markets: A heterogeneous agent model perspective," MPRA Paper 84886, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Zheng, Min & Wang, Hefei & Wang, Chengzhang & Wang, Shouyang, 2017. "Speculative behavior in a housing market: Boom and bust," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 50-64.
    12. Hommes, Cars & in ’t Veld, Daan, 2017. "Booms, busts and behavioural heterogeneity in stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 101-124.
    13. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mattia Guerini & Francesco Lamperti & Alessio Moneta & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Validation of Agent-Based Models in Economics and Finance," LEM Papers Series 2017/23, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    14. repec:eee:dyncon:v:85:y:2017:i:c:p:21-45 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Franke, Reiner & Ghonghadze, Jaba, 2014. "Integrating Real Sector Growth and Inflation Into An Agent-Based Stock Market Dynamics," FinMaP-Working Papers 4, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    16. Immonen, Eero, 2017. "Simple agent-based dynamical system models for efficient financial markets: Theory and examples," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 38-53.
    17. Coqueret, Guillaume, 2017. "Empirical properties of a heterogeneous agent model in large dimensions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 180-201.
    18. Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2017. "Estimation of financial agent-based models with simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 21-45.
    19. Blaurock, Ivonne & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2017. "Market entry waves and volatility outbursts in stock markets," BERG Working Paper Series 128, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset pricing; agent based models; fundamental analysis; technical analysis; momentum trading;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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