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Heterogeneous Gain Learning and Long Swings in Asset Prices

  • Blake LeBaron

    ()

    (International Business School, Brandeis University)

This paper considers the impact of heterogeneous gain learning in an asset pricing model. A relatively stylized model is shown to generate persistent swings of asset prices from their fundamental values which replicates long range samples of U.S financial data. The detailed mechanisms of the learning models are then explored. Evidence suggests that agents' perceptions of risk and its dynamics and persistence are important in generating appropriate price/fundamental dynamics. Agents putting large amounts of weight on the recent past in their volatility models control a large fraction of wealth, and are important in perpetuating the volatility magnifying dynamics of the market.

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File URL: http://www.brandeis.edu/departments/economics/RePEc/brd/doc/Brandeis_WP10.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.brandeis.edu/departments/economics/RePEc/brd/doc/Brandeis_WP10R.pdf
File Function: Revised version, 2011
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School in its series Working Papers with number 10.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:brd:wpaper:10
Contact details of provider: Postal: MS032, P.O. Box 9110, Waltham, MA 02454-9110
Web page: http://www.brandeis.edu/departments/economics/

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  1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  2. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet, 2010. "Booms and Busts in Asset Prices," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  3. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," CESifo Working Paper Series 772, CESifo Group Munich.
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  6. Mitra, Kaushik, 2005. "Is more data better?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 263-272, February.
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  8. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
  9. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  10. Georges, Christophre, 2008. "Staggered updating in an artificial financial market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2809-2825, September.
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  18. Robert F. Engle & Jose Gonzalo Rangel, 2008. "The Spline-GARCH Model for Low-Frequency Volatility and Its Global Macroeconomic Causes," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1187-1222, May.
  19. Fulvio Corsi, 2009. "A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 7(2), pages 174-196, Spring.
  20. repec:fth:harver:1421 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Kenneth L. Fisher & Meir Statman, 2006. "Market Timing In Regressions And Reality," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 293-304.
  22. Alberto Giovannini & Philippe Weil, 1989. "Risk Aversion and Intertemporal Substitution in the Capital Asset Pricing Model," NBER Working Papers 2824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
  24. Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
  25. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  26. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
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