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Bubbles, Crashes and Risk

Author

Listed:
  • William A. Branch

    (University of California, Irvine)

  • George W. Evans

    () (University of Oregon; University of St Andrews)

Abstract

In an asset-pricing model, risk-averse agents need to forecast the conditional variance of a stock's return. A near-rational restricted perceptions equilibrium exists in which agents believe prices follow a random walk with a conditional variance that is self-fulfilling. When agents estimate risk in real time, recurrent bubbles and crashes can arise. These effects are stronger when agents allow for ARCH in excess returns.

Suggested Citation

  • William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2013. "Bubbles, Crashes and Risk," CDMA Working Paper Series 201306, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:1306
    as

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    File URL: http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~wwwecon/repecfiles/2/1306.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    2. KevinJ. Lansing, 2010. "Rational and Near-Rational Bubbles Without Drift," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1149-1174, December.
    3. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2011. "Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 159-191, July.
    4. Alan Greenspan, 2005. "Reflections on central banking," Speech 126, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Marius Jurgilas & Kevin J. Lansing, 2012. "Housing bubbles and homeownership returns," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun25.
    6. Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 714-746.
    7. Gelain, Paolo & Lansing, Kevin J., 2014. "House prices, expectations, and time-varying fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 3-25.
    8. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    9. Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1993. "Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(2), pages 291-311.
    10. Allan G. Timmermann, 1993. "How Learning in Financial Markets Generates Excess Volatility and Predictability in Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1135-1145.
    11. Gaunersdorfer, Andrea, 2000. "Endogenous fluctuations in a simple asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 799-831, June.
    12. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2016. "Black Monday, globalization and trading behavior of stock investors," Discussion Papers 18/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. repec:kob:wpaper:1637 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2013. "Perpetual learning and stock return predictability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 19-22.
    4. Taro Ikeda, 2016. "Relume: A fractal analysis for the US stock market," Discussion Papers 1637, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    5. Guharay, Samar K. & Thakur, Gaurav S. & Goodman, Fred J. & Rosen, Scott L. & Houser, Daniel, 2013. "Analysis of non-stationary dynamics in the financial system," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 454-457.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk; asset pricing; bubbles; adaptive learning;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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