Switching Between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach
Since the early 1980s, models based on economic fundamentals have been poor at explaining the movements in the exchange rate (Messe 1990). In response to this problem, Frankel and Froot (1988) developed a model that uses two approaches to forecast the exchange rate: the fundamentalist approach, which bases the forecast on economic fundamentals, and the chartist approach, which bases the forecast on the past behaviour of the exchange rate. This was an innovation, as only the fundamentalist approach had been used before. A feature of the chartist-and-fundamentalist (c&f) model is that these two approaches' relative importance varies over time. Because this weighting is unobserved, the c&f model can not be estimated or tested using standard techniques. To overcome these difficulties and to test the model, the author uses Markov regime-switching techniques. He defines the two groups' different methods of forecasting as regimes and rewrites the c&f model as a regime-switching model. The model is then used to test for c&f behaviour in the Canada-U.S. daily exchange rate between 1983 and 1992. The author finds favourable though inconclusive evidence for the c&f model and accordingly makes suggestions for further research.
|Date of creation:||19 Feb 1996|
|Note:||22 printed pages, compressed PostScript file. Other recent Bank of Canada working papers are listed on the last page of this report.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 61-82, Suppl. De.
- Engel, Charles, 1994.
"Can the Markov switching model forecast exchange rates?,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 151-165, February.
- Charles Engel, 1991. "Can the Markov switching model forecast exchange rates?," Research Working Paper 91-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Charles Engel, 1992. "Can the Markov Switching Model Forecast Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 4210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1995. "Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology," Macroeconomics 9504003, EconWPA.
- Cutler, David M & Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics and the Role of Feedback Traders," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 63-68, May.
- David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics and the Role of Feedback Traders," NBER Working Papers 3243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Culter, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "Speculative Dynamics And The Role Of Feedback Traders," Working papers 545, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Robert A. Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, "undated". "An Empirical Investigation into Government Spending and Private Sector Behaviour," Staff Working Papers 94-8, Bank of Canada.
- Robert A. Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, 1995. "An Empirical Investigation into Government Spending and Private Sector Behaviour," Macroeconomics 9502005, EconWPA.
- Amano, Robert A. & van Norden, Simon, 1995. "Terms of trade and real exchange rates: the Canadian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-104, February.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
- Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
- Brock, W. & Lakonishok, J. & Lebaron, B., 1991. "Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties Of Stock Returns," Working papers 90-22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:9602003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.