Real Exchange Rates and Switching Regimes
We suggest that the real exchange rate between the major currencies in the post-Bretton Woods period can be described by a stationary, two state Markov switching AR(1) model. Based on the forecast performance, both in-sample and out-of-sample, we find that this model out-performs two competing models where the real exchange rate is non-stationary. We also find that the existence of different regimes, as in the Markov switching model, is consistent with the common finding of unit roots in the real exchange rate.
|Date of creation:||28 Sep 1999|
|Date of revision:||08 Jun 2000|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund,Sweden|
Phone: +46 +46 222 0000
Fax: +46 +46 2224613
Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/en
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:1999_004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Edgerton)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.