Bond yields in emerging economies: It matters what state you are in
While many studies have looked into the determinants of yields on externally issued sovereign bonds of emerging economies, analysis of domestically issued bonds has hitherto been limited, despite their growing relevance. This paper finds that the extent to which fiscal variables affect domestic bond yields in emerging economies depends on the level of global risk aversion. During tranquil times in global markets, fiscal variables do not seem to be a significant determinant of domestic bond yields in emerging economies. However, when market participants are on edge, they pay more attention to country-specific fiscal fundamentals, revealing greater alertness about default risk.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "LDC Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation, 1976-80," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 726-734, September.
- Thomas Laubach, 2003.
"New evidence on the interest rate effects of budget deficits and debt,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2003-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, 06.
- von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Wolswijk, Guido, 2011.
"Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: The impact of the financial crisis,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 36-43, March.
- Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2010. "Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: the impact of the financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1152, European Central Bank.
- Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2009. "Government Bond Risk Premiums in the EU revisited: The Impact of the Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dailami, Mansoor & Masson, Paul R. & Padou, Jean Jose, 2008.
"Global monetary conditions versus country-specific factors in the determination of emerging market debt spreads,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1325-1336, December.
- Dailami, Mansoor & Masson, Paul R. & Padou, Jean Jose, 2005. "Global monetary conditions versus country-specific factors in the determination of emerging market debt spreads," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3626, The World Bank.
- Mansoor Dailami & Paul Masson & Jean Jose Padou, 2005. "Global Monetary Conditions versus Country-Specific Factors in the Determination of Emerging Market Debt Spreads," International Finance 0506003, EconWPA.
- Miyajima, Ken & Mohanty, M.S. & Chan, Tracy, 2015.
"Emerging market local currency bonds: Diversification and stability,"
Emerging Markets Review,
Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 126-139.
- Ken Miyajima & Madhusudan Mohanty & Tracy Chan, 2012. "Emerging market local currency bonds: diversification and stability," BIS Working Papers 391, Bank for International Settlements.
- Martín González Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006.
"Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads,"
Research Department Publications
4445, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Martín González Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6703, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Martín González Rozada, 2005. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," Business School Working Papers globalfactorsspreads, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Hansen, B.E., 1991.
"Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis,"
RCER Working Papers
296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011.
"How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
- Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2000. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging Market Debt?," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 107-134 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hausman, Jerry A, 1978.
"Specification Tests in Econometrics,"
Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-1271, November.
- Korkmaz, Turhan & Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Gurkan, Serhan, 2010. "Testing the international capital asset pricing model with Markov switching model in emerging markets," MPRA Paper 71481, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
- Barro, Robert J, 1974.
"Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
- John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2010. "Emerging Local Currency Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 16249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Riccardo Faini, 2006. "Fiscal policy and interest rates in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 443-489, 07.
- Torsten Sløk & Mike Kennedy, 2004. "Factors Driving Risk Premia," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 385, OECD Publishing.
- Bernardin Akitoby & Thomas Stratmann, 2006.
"Fiscal Policy and Financial Markets,"
IMF Working Papers
06/16, International Monetary Fund.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1996.
"Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
- Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
- Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996.
"Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings,"
Economic Policy Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
- Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impacts of sovereign credit ratings," Research Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Laura E. Kodres & Kristian Hartelius & Kenichiro Kashiwase, 2008. "Emerging Market Spread Compression; Is it Real or is it Liquidity?," IMF Working Papers 08/10, International Monetary Fund.
- Huang, Ho-Chuan, 2001. "Tests of CAPM with Nonstationary Beta," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 255-68, July.
- Salvatore Dell’Erba & Sergio Sola, 2011. "Expected fiscal policy and interest rates in open economy," IHEID Working Papers 07-2011, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
- Dubravko Mihaljek & Michela Scatigna & Agustin Villar, 2002. "Recent trends in bond markets - The development of bond markets in emerging economies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The development of bond markets in emerging economies, volume 11, pages 13-41 Bank for International Settlements.
- António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2011.
"Growth and Productivity: the role of Government Debt,"
Working Papers Department of Economics
2011/13, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Growth and productivity: The role of government debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 384-407.
- Pesaran, M.H., 2004.
"‘General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels’,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0435, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2004. "General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels," IZA Discussion Papers 1240, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels," CESifo Working Paper Series 1229, CESifo Group Munich.
- Bank for International Settlements, 2007. "Financial stability and local currency bond markets," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 28, November.
- Don U. A. Galagedera & Robert Faff, 2005.
"Modeling The Risk And Return Relation Conditional On Market Volatility And Market Conditions,"
International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF),
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 75-95.
- Don U.A. Galagedera & Robert Faff, 2004. "Modelling the Risk and Return Relation Conditional on Market Volatility and Market Conditions," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Blinder, Alan S. & Solow, Robert M., 1973. "Does fiscal policy matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 319-337.
- Peter Rowland & José Luis Torres, "undated".
"Determinants of Spread and Creditworthiness for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt:A Panel Data Study,"
Borradores de Economia
295, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Peter Rowland & José Luis Torres Trespalacios, 2004. "Determinants Of Spread And Creditworthiness For Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: A Panel Data Study," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002337, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Gale, William G. & Orszag, Peter R., 2003. "Economic Effects of Sustained Budget Deficits," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 56(3), pages 463-485, September.
- Steven B. Kamin & K von Kleist, 1999. "The evolution and determinants of emerging markets credit spreads in the 1990s," BIS Working Papers 68, Bank for International Settlements.
- Vincent Reinhart & Brian Sack, 2000. "The Economic Consequences of Disappearing Government Debt," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2), pages 163-220.
- Edda Zoli & Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/222, International Monetary Fund.
- Shyh-Wei Chen & Nai-Chuan Huang, 2007. "Estimates of the ICAPM with regime-switching betas: evidence from four pacific rim economies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 313-327.
- Shanaka J Peiris, 2010. "Foreign Participation in Emerging Marketsâ€™ Local Currency Bond Markets," IMF Working Papers 10/88, International Monetary Fund.
- Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads; Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
- David Haugh & Patrice Ollivaud & David Turner, 2009. "What Drives Sovereign Risk Premiums?: An Analysis of Recent Evidence from the Euro Area," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 718, OECD Publishing.
- Manmohan S. Kumar & Emanuele Baldacci, 2010. "Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 10/184, International Monetary Fund.
- Emanuele Baldacci & Sanjeev Gupta & Amine Mati, 2011. "Political and Fiscal Risk Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 251-263, 05.
- Iva Petrova & Michael G Papaioannou & Dimitri Bellas, 2010. "Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads; Fundamentals vs Financial Stress," IMF Working Papers 10/281, International Monetary Fund.
- Francesco Audrino & Enrico De Giorgi, "undated".
"Beta Regimes for the Yield Curve,"
IEW - Working Papers
244, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- R. D. Brooks & R. W. Faff & M. McKenzie, 2002. "Time varying country risk: an assessment of alternative modelling techniques," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 249-274.
- Sebastian Edwards, 1983. "LDC's Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 1172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004.
"Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1331, CESifo Group Munich.
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
- Anders Johansson, 2009. "Stochastic volatility and time-varying country risk in emerging markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 337-363.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:17:y:2013:i:c:p:169-185. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.