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Modeling The Risk And Return Relation Conditional On Market Volatility And Market Conditions

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  • DON U. A. GALAGEDERA

    (Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University, PO Box 197, Caulfield East, Victoria 3145, Australia)

  • ROBERT FAFF

    (Department of Accounting and Finance, Monash University, Clayton, VIC 3800, Australia)

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the risk-return relation varies, depending on changing market volatility and up/down market conditions. Three market regimes based on the level of conditional volatility of market returns are specified — "low", "neutral" and "high". The market model is extended to allow for these three market regimes and a three-beta asset-pricing model is developed. For a set of US industry sector indices using a cross-sectional regression, we find that the beta risk premium in the three market volatility regimes is priced. These significant results are uncovered only in the pricing model that accommodates up/down market conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Don U. A. Galagedera & Robert Faff, 2005. "Modeling The Risk And Return Relation Conditional On Market Volatility And Market Conditions," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 75-95.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:08:y:2005:i:01:n:s0219024905002901
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024905002901
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    9. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Don U.A. Galagedera, 2004. "A survey on risk-return analysis," Finance 0406010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Turhan Korkmaz & Emrah I. Çevik & Elif Birkan & Nesrin ÖzataÇ, 2010. "Testing Capm using Markov Switching Model: The Case of Coal Firms," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 44-59, January.
    3. Jaramillo, Laura & Weber, Anke, 2013. "Bond yields in emerging economies: It matters what state you are in," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 169-185.
    4. Don U.A. Galagedera & Roland G. Shami, 2004. "Beta Risk and Regime Shift in Market Volatility," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 126, Econometric Society.
    5. Sonam Srivastava & Ritabratta Bhattacharya, 2018. "Evaluating the Building Blocks of a Dynamically Adaptive Systematic Trading Strategy," Papers 1812.02527, arXiv.org.
    6. Kundu, Srikanta & Sarkar, Nityananda, 2016. "Return and volatility interdependences in up and down markets across developed and emerging countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 297-311.
    7. Peng Huang & C. James Hueng, 2008. "Conditional risk-return relationship in a time-varying beta model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 381-390.
    8. Srikanta Kundu & Nityananda Sarkar, 2016. "Is the Effect of Risk on Stock Returns Different in Up and Down Markets? A Multi-Country Study," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 8(2), pages 53-71, September.
    9. Galagedera, Don U.A. & Brooks, Robert D., 2007. "Is co-skewness a better measure of risk in the downside than downside beta?: Evidence in emerging market data," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 214-230, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CAPM; conditional market volatility; modeling conditional betas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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