Modelling the Risk and Return Relation Conditional on Market Volatility and Market Conditions
This paper investigates whether the risk-return relation varies, depending on changing market volatility and up/down market conditions. Three market regimes based on the level of conditional volatility of market returns are specified - 'low', 'neutral' and 'high'. The market model is extended to allow for these three market regimes and a three-beta asset-pricing model is developed. For a set of US industry sector indices using a cross-sectional regression, we find that the beta risk premium in the three market volatility regimes is priced. These significant results are uncovered only in the pricing model that accommodates up/down market conditions.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: PO Box 11E, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia|
Phone: +61 3 99052489
Fax: +61 3 99055474
Web page: http://business.monash.edu/econometrics-and-business-statistics
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://business.monash.edu/econometrics-and-business-statistics Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W. & Yew, Kee Ho, 1997. "A new test of the relationship between regulatory change in financial markets and the stability of beta risk of depository institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 197-219, February.
- Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 1996.
"The conditional CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns,"
208, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. " The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Faff, Robert, 2001. "A Multivariate Test of a Dual-Beta CAPM: Australian Evidence," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 157-74, November.
- Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
- Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993.
" Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
- Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pettengill, Glenn N. & Sundaram, Sridhar & Mathur, Ike, 1995. "The Conditional Relation between Beta and Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 101-116, March.
- Bhardwaj, Ravinder K & Brooks, LeRoy D, 1993. "Dual Betas from Bull and Bear Markets: Reversal of the Size Effect," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 16(4), pages 269-83, Winter.
- Bos, T & Newbold, P, 1984. "An Empirical Investigation of the Possibility of Stochastic Systematic Risk in the Market Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 35-41, January.
- Kim, Moon K. & Zumwalt, J. Kenton, 1979. "An Analysis of Risk in Bull and Bear Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(05), pages 1015-1025, December.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038 Elsevier.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2004-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dr Xibin Zhang)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.