IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets

Listed author(s):
  • Alagidede, Paul
  • Panagiotidis, Theodore

We investigate the behaviour of stock returns in Africa's largest markets namely, Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, Tunisia and Zimbabwe. The validity of the random walk hypothesis is examined and rejected by employing a battery of tests. Secondly we employ smooth transition and conditional volatility models to uncover the dynamics of the first two moments and examine weak form efficiency. The empirical stylized facts of volatility clustering, leptokurtosis and leverage effect are present in the African data.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057-5219(09)00006-4
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Financial Analysis.

Volume (Year): 18 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (March)
Pages: 1-11

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:18:y:2009:i:1-2:p:1-11
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 77-102.
  2. Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
  3. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
  4. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
  5. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
  6. Mills, Terence C, 1997. "Technical Analysis and the London Stock Exchange: Testing Trading Rules Using the FT30," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 319-331, October.
  7. Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
  8. M. Magnusson & B. Wydick, 2002. "How Efficient are Africa's Emerging Stock Markets?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 141-156.
  9. Caprio, Gerard, Jr & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 1998. "The Role of Long-Term Finance: Theory and Evidence," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 13(2), pages 171-189, August.
  10. Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998. "Modelling economic high-frequency time series with STAR-STGARCH models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 291, Stockholm School of Economics.
  11. de Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2001. "Exchange Rates, Prices and Money: A Long-Run Perspective," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 289-313, October.
  12. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1988. "Time-Variation in Expected Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(4), pages 409-425, October.
  13. Neftci, Salih N, 1991. "Naive Trading Rules in Financial Markets and Wiener-Kolmogorov Prediction Theory: A Study of "Technical Analysis."," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(4), pages 549-571, October.
  14. Alexandros Milionis & Demetrios Moschos, 2000. "On the validity of the weak-form efficient markets hypothesis applied to the London stock exchange: comment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(7), pages 419-421.
  15. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
  16. Jacqueline T Irving, 2005. "Regional Integration of Stock Exchanges in Eastern and Southern Africa; Progress and Prospects," IMF Working Papers 05/122, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  18. Baillie, Richard T. & DeGennaro, Ramon P., 1990. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(02), pages 203-214, June.
  19. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo, 2002. "Evaluating GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 417-435, October.
  20. Brooks, Chris & Heravi, Saeed M, 1999. "The Effect of (Mis-Specified) GARCH Filters on the Finite Sample Distribution of the BDS Test," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 147-162, April.
  21. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
  22. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
  23. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  24. Appiah-Kusi, Joe & Menyah, Kojo, 2003. "Return predictability in African stock markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 247-270.
  25. R. Olowe, 1999. "Weak Form Efficiency of the Nigerian Stock Market: Further Evidence," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 11(1), pages 54-68.
  26. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  27. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
  28. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
  29. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  30. Brooks, Robert, 2007. "Power arch modelling of the volatility of emerging equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 124-133, May.
  31. Mauro Mecagni & Maged Sawky Sourial, 1999. "The Egyptian Stock Market; Efficiency Tests and Volatility Effects," IMF Working Papers 99/48, International Monetary Fund.
  32. Green, Christopher J. & Maggioni, Paolo & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Regulatory lessons for emerging stock markets from a century of evidence on transactions costs and share price volatility in the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 577-601, April.
  33. Lim, Kian-Ping & Brooks, Robert D. & Kim, Jae H., 2008. "Financial crisis and stock market efficiency: Empirical evidence from Asian countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 571-591, June.
  34. Keith Jefferis & Graham Smith, 2005. "The Changing Efficiency Of African Stock Markets," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(1), pages 54-67, 03.
  35. Ashley, Richard A. & Patterson, Douglas M., 2006. "Evaluating the Effectiveness of State-Switching Time Series Models for U.S. Real Output," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 266-277, July.
  36. Jayasuriya, Shamila, 2005. "Stock market liberalization and volatility in the presence of favorable market characteristics and institutions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 170-191, June.
  37. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:18:y:2009:i:1-2:p:1-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.