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Exchange Rates, Prices and Money. A Long Run Perspective

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In this paper we analyse the long-run proportionality and neutrality propositions between inflation and money growth and between exchange rate changes and money growth. Using a sample of 100 countries over a thirty-year period we find that the evidence in favour of these propositions is weak for the low inflation countries and very strong for the high inflation countries. We propose an explanation based on productivity shocks and transaction costs. Copyright @ 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.
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  • Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2001. "Exchange Rates, Prices and Money. A Long Run Perspective," Working Papers 46, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:46
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    2. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2009. "Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 1-11, March.
    3. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:51:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Zied Ftiti & Slim Chaouachi, 2018. "What Can We Learn About the Real Exchange Rate Behavior in the Case of a Peripheral Country?," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(3), pages 681-707, September.
    5. Yihui Lan, 2003. "The Long-Term Behaviour of Exchange Rates, Part II: Aspects of Exchange-Rate Economics," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 03-06, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    6. Helmut Herwartz & Hans‐Eggert Reimers, 2006. "Long‐Run Links among Money, Prices and Output: Worldwide Evidence," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(1), pages 65-86, February.
    7. Hau, Harald, 2002. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Openness: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 611-630, August.
    8. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2014. "Heterogeneity of Agents, Transactions Costs and the Exchange Rate," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 2, pages 33-70, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2008. "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: A nonlinear microstructural analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 55-76, January.
    10. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2014. "Exchange Rate Puzzles: A Tale of Switching Attractors," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 3, pages 71-117, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2005. "The Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals in a Complex World," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 549-575, August.
    12. Stefan Reitz & Mark Taylor, 2012. "FX intervention in the Yen-US dollar market: a coordination channel perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 111-128, June.
    13. Stefan Reitz & Ulf Slopek, 2009. "Non‐Linear Oil Price Dynamics: A Tale of Heterogeneous Speculators?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(3), pages 270-283, August.
    14. Wang, Ying & Tu, Yundong & Chen, Song Xi, 2016. "Improving inflation prediction with the quantity theory," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 112-115.
    15. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2003. "Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market in a Model with Noise Traders," Working Papers 162003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    16. Stefan Reitz & Jan C. Rülke & Mark P. Taylor, 2011. "On the Nonlinear Influence of Reserve Bank of Australia Interventions on Exchange Rates," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(278), pages 465-479, September.
    17. Herwartz Helmut & Reimers Hans-Eggert, 2006. "Long-Run Links among Money, Prices and Output: Worldwide Evidence," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 65-86, February.
    18. Slim Chaouachi & Zied Ftiti & Frederic Teulon, 2014. "Explaining the Tunisian Real Exchange: Long Memory versus Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2014-147, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    19. Vincenzo Costa, 2004. "Risk neutral valuation and uncovered interest rate parity in a stochastic two-country-economy with two goods," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(43), pages 1-10.
    20. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-390 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Hans Genberg, 2002. "Monetary Policy in East Asia (And Elsewhere): Does Targeting Inflation Require 'Inflation Targeting'?," Working Papers 032002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    22. Stefan Reitz & M.P Taylor, 2006. "The Coordination Channel of Foreign Exchange Intervention," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 16, Society for Computational Economics.

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