Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets
We investigate the behaviour of stock returns in Africa's largest markets namely, Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, Tunisia and Zimbabwe. The validity of the random walk hypothesis is examined and rejected by employing a battery of tests. Secondly we employ smooth transition and conditional volatility models to uncover the dynamics of the first two moments and examine weak from efficiency. The empirical stylized facts of volatility clustering, leptokurtosis and leverage effect are present in the African data.
|Date of creation:||28 Jan 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Division of Economics, University of Stirling, Stirling, Scotland FK9 4LA|
Phone: +44 (0)1786 467473
Fax: +44 (0)1786 467469
Web page: http://www.econ.stir.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
- Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991.
"Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility,"
NBER Working Papers
3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
- Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo, 2002.
"Evaluating GARCH models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 417-435, October.
- Stefan Lundbergh & Timo Teräsvirta, 1999. "Evaluating GARCH Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-008/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998. "Evaluating GARCH models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 292, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 03 May 1999.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Brooks, Chris & Heravi, Saeed M, 1999. "The Effect of (Mis-Specified) GARCH Filters on the Finite Sample Distribution of the BDS Test," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 147-62, April.
- Keith Jefferis & Graham Smith, 2005. "The Changing Efficiency Of African Stock Markets," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(1), pages 54-67, 03.
- Green, Christopher J. & Maggioni, Paolo & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Regulatory lessons for emerging stock markets from a century of evidence on transactions costs and share price volatility in the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 577-601, April.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000.
"Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
- Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
- van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Jayasuriya, Shamila, 2005. "Stock market liberalization and volatility in the presence of favorable market characteristics and institutions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 170-191, June.
- Campbell R. Harvey, 1994.
"Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
4621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Geert Bekaert & Guojun Wu, 1997.
"Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
6022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brooks, Robert, 2007. "Power arch modelling of the volatility of emerging equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 124-133, May.
- Caprio, Gerard, Jr & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 1998.
"The Role of Long-Term Finance: Theory and Evidence,"
World Bank Research Observer,
World Bank Group, vol. 13(2), pages 171-89, August.
- Caprio Jr., Gerard & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 1997. "The role of long term finance : theory and evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1746, The World Bank.
- Lim, Kian-Ping & Brooks, Robert D. & Kim, Jae H., 2008. "Financial crisis and stock market efficiency: Empirical evidence from Asian countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 571-591, June.
- de Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2001. "Exchange Rates, Prices and Money: A Long-Run Perspective," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 289-313, October.
- Alexandros Milionis & Demetrios Moschos, 2000. "On the validity of the weak-form efficient markets hypothesis applied to the London stock exchange: comment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(7), pages 419-421.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
- Ashley, Richard A. & Patterson, Douglas M., 2006. "Evaluating the Effectiveness of State-Switching Time Series Models for U.S. Real Output," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 266-277, July.
- French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:stl:stledp:2009-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Liam Delaney)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.