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Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets

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  • Alagidede, Paul
  • Panagiotidis, Theodore

Abstract

We investigate the behaviour of stock returns in Africa's largest markets namely, Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, Tunisia and Zimbabwe. The validity of the random walk hypothesis is examined and rejected by employing a battery of tests. Secondly we employ smooth transition and conditional volatility models to uncover the dynamics of the first two moments and examine weak from efficiency. The empirical stylized facts of volatility clustering, leptokurtosis and leverage effect are present in the African data.

Suggested Citation

  • Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2009. "Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2009-04, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:stl:stledp:2009-04
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/715
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    Cited by:

    1. Lucey, Brian M. & Muckley, Cal, 2011. "Robust global stock market interdependencies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 215-224, August.
    2. Emmanuel Anoruo & Luis Gil-Alana, 2011. "Mean reversion and long memory in African stock market prices," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 35(3), pages 296-308, July.
    3. Ng, Andrew Cheuk-Yin & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Chan, Wai-Sum, 2011. "Modeling investment guarantees in Japan: A risk-neutral GARCH approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 20-26, January.
    4. Feyyaz Zeren & Filiz Konuk, 2013. "Testing The Random Walk Hypothesis For Emerging Markets: Evidence From Linear And Non-Linear Unit Root Tests," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 8(4), pages 61-71, december.
    5. Rania Jammazi & Chaker Aloui, 2014. "Cyclical components and dual long memory in the foreign exchange rate dynamics: the Tunisian case," Working Papers 2014-198, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    6. N’dri Konan Léon, 2015. "Forecasting Stock Return Volatility: Evidence from the West African Regional Stock Market," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 5(6), pages 1-2.
    7. Korkmaz, Turhan & Çevik, Emrah İ. & Atukeren, Erdal, 2012. "Return and volatility spillovers among CIVETS stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 230-252.
    8. Lord Mensah, 2016. "Asset Allocation Brewed Accross African Stock Markets," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 3205757, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
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    11. Stavroyiannis, S. & Makris, I. & Nikolaidis, V., 2010. "Non-extensive properties, multifractality, and inefficiency degree of the Athens Stock Exchange General Index," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 19-24, January.
    12. Abdmoulah, Walid, 2010. "Testing the evolving efficiency of Arab stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 25-34, January.
    13. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2014. "The conditional pricing of currency and inflation risks in Africa's equity markets," MPRA Paper 56100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Todd Moss and Ross Thuotte, 2013. "Nowhere Left to Hide? Stock Market Correlation, Regional Diversification, and the Case for Investing in Africa," Working Papers 316, Center for Global Development.
    15. Bruce Hearn & Jenifer Piesse, 2015. "The Impact of Firm Size and Liquidity on the Cost of External Finance in Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(1), pages 1-22, March.
    16. Hearn, Bruce, 2013. "Size and liquidity effects in Nigeria: an industrial sector study," MPRA Paper 47975, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Hearn, Bruce & Piesse, Jenifer, 2013. "Firm level governance and institutional determinants of liquidity: Evidence from Sub Saharan Africa," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 93-111.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Returns; Weak Form Efficiency; Asymmetric Volatility; African Stock Markets;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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