IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Volatility in the Emerging Stock Markets in Central and Eastern Europe: Evidence on Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia and Slovakia

  • Murinde V.
  • Poshakwala S.
Registered author(s):

    This paper investigates the main features of stock market volatility in the emerging markets of European transition economies using daily indexes. Starting with the universe of all stock markets in the transition economies, we use the criterion of data availability to obtain a sample of six stock markets, namely the markets in Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia and Slovakia. We apply ARIMA, the BDSL procedure and symmetric as well as asymmetric GARCH models to test for daily return volatility. The main findings are fourfold. First, in all the six markets, volatility exhibits significant conditional heteroskedasticity and non–linearity. Second, volatility seems to be of a persistent nature; however, no asymmetric volatility effects are found for most of the markets. Third, as measured by a GARCH–in–Mean model, volatility does not explain expected returns for any of the six markets. Although GARCH appears to be the most appropriate process in characterising volatility in these markets, the explanation provided by symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models is not significant enough for predicting future volatility. Fourth, while the evidence suggests that the martingale hypothesis can be significantly rejected for all the six markets, none of the markets shows the well–known day–of–the–week anomaly commonly reported in most stock markets.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.ersj.eu/repec/ers/papers/01_34_p6.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Article provided by European Research Studies Journal in its journal European Research Studies Journal.

    Volume (Year): IV (2001)
    Issue (Month): 3-4 (July - December)
    Pages: 73-102

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:iv:y:2001:i:3-4:p:73-102
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.ersj.eu/

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Pindyck, Robert S, 1984. "Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 335-51, June.
    2. Hsieh, David A., 1993. "Implications of Nonlinear Dynamics for Financial Risk Management," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(01), pages 41-64, March.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
    4. Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Market Volatility and Investor Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 58-62, May.
    5. Chou, Ray Yeutien, 1988. "Volatility Persistence and Stock Valuations: Some Empirical Evidence Using Garch," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-94, October-D.
    6. Errunza, Vihang, et al, 1994. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Global Stock Return Distributions," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 293-317, August.
    7. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
    8. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 73-92, February.
    9. Rabemananjara, R & Zakoian, J M, 1993. "Threshold Arch Models and Asymmetries in Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 31-49, Jan.-Marc.
    10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    11. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    12. Barry Gordon & Libby Rittenberg, 1995. "The Warsaw Stock Exchange: A Test of Market Efficiency," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 1-27, July.
    13. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
    14. Koutmos, Gregory & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1995. "Asymmetric volatility transmission in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 747-762, December.
    15. Bolt, Tadeusz W & Milobedzki, Pawel, 1994. " The Warsaw Stock Exchange in the Period 1991-1993. Qualitative Problems of Its Modelling," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 211-26.
    16. Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
    17. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    18. Renato Flôres & Ariane Szafarz, 1997. "Testing the Information Structure of Eastern European Markets: The Warsaw Stock Exchange," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/707, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    19. Aggarwal, Raj & Schatzberg, John D., 1997. "Day of the week effects, information seasonality, and higher moments of security returns," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 1-20, February.
    20. Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    22. Baillie, Richard T. & DeGennaro, Ramon P., 1990. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(02), pages 203-214, June.
    23. Jean-François Nivet, 1997. "Stock markets in transition: the Warsaw experiment," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 5(1), pages 171-183, 05.
    24. Shinichi Sakata & Halbert White, 1998. "High Breakdown Point Conditional Dispersion Estimation with Application to S&P 500 Daily Returns Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 529-568, May.
    25. Scheinkman, Jose A & LeBaron, Blake, 1989. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 311-37, July.
    26. Booth, G. Geoffrey & Martikainen, Teppo & Tse, Yiuman, 1997. "Price and volatility spillovers in Scandinavian stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 811-823, June.
    27. Hsieh, David A, 1991. " Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-77, December.
    28. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
    29. Green, Christopher J. & Maggioni, Paolo & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Regulatory lessons for emerging stock markets from a century of evidence on transactions costs and share price volatility in the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 577-601, April.
    30. Susmel, Raul & Engle, Robert F., 1994. "Hourly volatility spillovers between international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 3-25, February.
    31. McCurdy, Thomas H & Morgan, Ieuan G, 1988. "Testing the Martingale Hypothesis in Deutsche Mark Futures with Models Specifying the Form of Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 187-202, July-Sept.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:iv:y:2001:i:3-4:p:73-102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Eleni Giannakopoulou)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.