Mean reversion and long memory in African stock market prices
We examine the behaviour of stockmarket prices in several African countries by means of fractionally integrated techniques. In doung so, we can test for mean reversion in these markets. Our results can be summarized as follows: we cannot find evidence of mean reversion in any single market, and evidence of long memory returns (i.e.,orders of integration above 1 in the logged stock prices) is obtained in the cases of Egypt and Nigeria, and, in a lesser extent in Tunisia, Morocco and Kenya. Permittin theexistence of a s structural change, the breakdates take place in the earlier 2000s in the majority of the cases, and evidenceof mena reversio seems to have taken place in hte periods before the breaks in most of the countries. If we focus on the absolute and squared returns, evidence of long memory is obtained in Nigeria and Egypt. Thus, for these two countries, a long memory model incorporating positive fractional degrees of integration in both the level and the volatility process should be considered.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/12197/PS2|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
- Assaf, A., 2006. "Dependence and mean reversion in stock prices: The case of the MENA region," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 286-304, September.
- Paul Alagidede & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2009.
"Modelling stock returns in Africa’s emerging equity markets,"
Discussion Paper Series
2009_01, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jan 2009.
- Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2009. "Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 1-11, March.
- Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2009. "Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2009-04, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
- M. Magnusson & B. Wydick, 2002. "How Efficient are Africa's Emerging Stock Markets?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 141-156.
- Rehim Kili, 2004. "On the long memory properties of emerging capital markets: evidence from Istanbul stock exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(13), pages 915-922.
- Jussi Tolvi, 2003. "Long memory and outliers in stock market returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 495-502.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
- repec:adr:anecst:y:1995:i:40:p:04 is not listed on IDEAS
- Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2008.
"Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time,"
Journal of Time Series Analysis,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 163-185, 01.
- Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2006. "Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time," Faculty Working Papers 16/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas, 1996.
"Long Term Dependence in Stock Returns,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
314., Boston College Department of Economics.
- repec:adr:anecst:y:1995:i:40 is not listed on IDEAS
- Sadique, Shibley & Silvapulle, Param, 2001. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Returns: International Evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 59-67, January.
- C. W. J. Granger & Zhuanxin Ding, 1995. "Some Properties of Absolute Return: An Alternative Measure of Risk," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 40, pages 67-91.
- Koong, C.S. & Tsui, Albert K. & Chan, W.S., 1997. "On tests for long memory in Pacific Basin stock returns," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 445-449.
- John T. Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Nickolaos Travlos, 1996.
"Long Memory in the Greek Stock Market,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
356., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1995. "A search for long memory in international stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 597-615, August.
- Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988.
"Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
- James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications," NBER Working Papers 2343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:35:y:2011:i:3:p:296-308. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.