IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Stock market prices in China. Efficiency, mean reversion, long memory volatility and other implicit dynamics

  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

    ()

    (University of Navarra)

  • Yun Cao

    ()

    (CEMFI)

This paper analyzes the long-term dynamics of Chinese stock market prices, using the data series of daily closing spot price indices from Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, two major stock exchange markets in China. Both autoregressive and fractional models have been employed: in the former case, we implement standard unit root tests to determine the nonstationarity; while for the fractional I(d) models, we use a parametric testing procedure developed by Robinson (1994) and a semiparametric estimation method based on a “local” Whittle estimate of d (Robinson, 1995). The results show strong evidence in favour of unit roots and thus lack of mean reverting behaviour for the log-prices series, when using both the classical methods based on integer degrees of differentiation but also when applying fractionally integrated techniques. On the other hand, when examining the volatility processes by means of studying the absolute and the squared returns series, the results strongly support the view of fractional integration in all cases, with the orders of integration fluctuating in the range (0, 0.5). This implies stationary long memory in volatility.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.unav.es/facultad/econom/files/workingpapersmodule/@random4d35501bb6886/1320233057_WP_UNAV_12_11.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra in its series Faculty Working Papers with number 12/11.

as
in new window

Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 02 Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp1211
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.unav.es/facultad/econom

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
  2. Luis A. Gil-Alana & S.G. Brian Henry, 2003. "Fractional Integration and the Dynamics of UK Unemployment," Faculty Working Papers 10/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  3. Fabrizio Lillo & J. Doyne Farmer, 2003. "The long memory of the efficient market," Papers cond-mat/0311053, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2004.
  4. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Long Run And Cyclical Dynamics In The Us Stock Market," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 05-09, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  6. Granger, Clive W. J. & Ding, Zhuanxin, 1996. "Varieties of long memory models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 61-77, July.
  7. Lee, Dongin & Schmidt, Peter, 1996. "On the power of the KPSS test of stationarity against fractionally-integrated alternatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 285-302, July.
  8. Sadique, Shibley & Silvapulle, Param, 2001. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Returns: International Evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 59-67, January.
  9. Robinson, P.M. & Henry, M., 1999. "Long And Short Memory Conditional Heteroskedasticity In Estimating The Memory Parameter Of Levels," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 299-336, June.
  10. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications," NBER Working Papers 2343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2000. "Mean reversion in the real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 285-288, December.
  12. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2002. "Fractional integration and mean reversion in stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 599-609.
  13. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1995. "A search for long memory in international stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 597-615, August.
  14. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2009. "The random walk hypothesis for Chinese stock markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 117-126, June.
  15. Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F., 1996. "Long-term dependence in stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 253-259, December.
  16. Gil-Alana, L.A., 2006. "Fractional integration in daily stock market indexes," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 28-48.
  17. Lobato, I.N. & Savin, N.E., 1996. "Real and Spurious Long Memory Properties of Stock Market Data," Working Papers 96-07, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
  18. Demetrescu, Matei & Kuzin, Vladimir & Hassler, Uwe, 2008. "Long Memory Testing In The Time Domain," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(01), pages 176-215, February.
  19. John T. Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Nickolaos Travlos, 1996. "Long Memory in the Greek Stock Market," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 356., Boston College Department of Economics.
  20. Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. " Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
  21. Ignacio N. Lobato & Carlos Velasco, 2005. "Efficient Wald Tests For Fractional Unit Roots," Economics Working Papers we056935, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  22. Cheng F. Lee & Gong-meng Chen & Oliver M. Rui, 2001. "Stock Returns And Volatility On China'S Stock Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 523-543, December.
  23. Kew, Hsein & Harris, David, 2009. "Heteroskedasticity-Robust Testing For A Fractional Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(06), pages 1734-1753, December.
  24. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
  25. Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D., 1997. "Another look at long memory in common stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 373-401, December.
  26. Philipp Sibbertsen, 2004. "Long memory in volatilities of German stock returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 477-488, 09.
  27. DiSario, Robert & Saraoglu, Hakan & McCarthy, Joseph & Li, Hsi, 2008. "Long memory in the volatility of an emerging equity market: The case of Turkey," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 305-312, October.
  28. Olan Henry, 2002. "Long memory in stock returns: some international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 725-729.
  29. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Redfern, Luke, 2009. "Sentiment effects on Chinese share prices and savings deposits: The post-2003 experience," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 246-261, June.
  30. R. L. Costa & G. L. Vasconcelos, 2003. "Long-range correlations and nonstationarity in the Brazilian stock market," Papers cond-mat/0302342, arXiv.org.
  31. Costa, Rogério L. & Vasconcelos, G.L., 2003. "Long-range correlations and nonstationarity in the Brazilian stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 329(1), pages 231-248.
  32. Jussi Tolvi, 2003. "Long memory and outliers in stock market returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 495-502.
  33. Abadir, Karim M. & Distaso, Walter & Giraitis, Liudas, 2007. "Nonstationarity-extended local Whittle estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1353-1384, December.
  34. John Cotter, 2011. "Uncovering Long Memory in High Frequency UK Futures," Working Papers 200414, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  35. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  36. Katsumi Shimotsu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2000. "Local Whittle Estimation in Nonstationary and Unit Root Cases," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1266, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 2003.
  37. Fei Ren & Gao-Feng Gu & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2009. "Scaling and memory in the return intervals of realized volatility," Papers 0904.1107, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2009.
  38. Michael E. Drew & Tony Naughton & Madhu Veeraraghavan, 2003. "Firm Size, Book-to-Market Equity and Security Returns: Evidence from the Shanghai Stock Exchange," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 28(2), pages 119-139, September.
  39. Ren, Fei & Gu, Gao-Feng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2009. "Scaling and memory in the return intervals of realized volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(22), pages 4787-4796.
  40. Lobato, Ignacio N & Savin, N E, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 280-83, July.
  41. Gao-Feng Gu & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2008. "Emergence of long memory in stock volatility from a modified Mike-Farmer model," Papers 0807.4639, arXiv.org, revised May 2009.
  42. Ren, Fei & Guo, Liang & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2009. "Statistical properties of volatility return intervals of Chinese stocks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(6), pages 881-890.
  43. Robert F. Dittmar, 2002. "Nonlinear Pricing Kernels, Kurtosis Preference, and Evidence from the Cross Section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 369-403, 02.
  44. Qian, Xi-Yuan & Song, Fu-Tie & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2008. "Nonlinear behaviour of the Chinese SSEC index with a unit root: Evidence from threshold unit root tests," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(2), pages 503-510.
  45. Fei Ren & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2008. "Multiscaling behavior in the volatility return intervals of Chinese indices," Papers 0809.0250, arXiv.org.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp1211. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.