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Uncovering long memory in high frequency UK futures

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  • John Cotter

Abstract

Accurate volatility modelling is paramount for optimal risk management practices. One stylized feature of financial volatility that impacts the modelling process is long memory explored in this paper for alternative risk measures, observed absolute and squared returns for high frequency intraday UK futures. Volatility series for three different asset types, using stock index, interest rate and bond futures are analysed. Long memory is strongest for the bond contract. Long memory is always strongest for the absolute returns series and at a power transformation of k < 1. The long memory findings generally incorporate intraday periodicity. The APARCH model incorporating seven related GARCH processes generally models the futures series adequately documenting ARCH, GARCH and leverage effects.

Suggested Citation

  • John Cotter, 2005. "Uncovering long memory in high frequency UK futures," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 325-337.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:11:y:2005:i:4:p:325-337
    DOI: 10.1080/13518470410001674314
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    Cited by:

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    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Long Memory and Fractional Integration in High-Frequency British Pound / Dollar Spot Exchange Rates," Faculty Working Papers 02/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    4. Mustafa Demirel & Gazanfer Unal, 2020. "Applying multivariate-fractionally integrated volatility analysis on emerging market bond portfolios," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-29, December.
    5. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Mudida, Robert & Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Osuolale, Kazeem & Ogbonna, Ephraim A, 2019. "Influence of US Presidential Terms on S&P500 Index Using a Time Series Analysis Approach," MPRA Paper 93941, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Elie Bouri & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Rangan Gupta & David Roubaud, 2019. "Modelling long memory volatility in the Bitcoin market: Evidence of persistence and structural breaks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 412-426, January.
    7. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2013. "Long memory and fractional integration in high frequency data on the US dollar/British pound spot exchange rate," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-9.
    8. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Shittu, Olanrewaju I. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2014. "On the persistence and volatility in European, American and Asian stocks bull and bear markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 149-162.
    9. Carlos P. Barros & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Zhongfei Chen, 2016. "Exchange rate persistence of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar in the NDF market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1399-1414, December.
    10. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Trilochan Tripathy, 2016. "Long Range Dependence in the Indian Stock Market: Evidence of Fractional Integration, Non-Linearities and Breaks," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(2), pages 199-215, December.
    11. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2017. "Crude oil price behaviour before and after military conflicts and geopolitical events," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 79-91.
    12. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2012. "Long Memory and Volatility Dynamics in the US Dollar Exchange Rate," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 16(1-2), pages 105-136, March - J.
    13. Xu, Dan & Beck, Christian, 2016. "Transition from lognormal to χ2-superstatistics for financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 453(C), pages 173-183.
    14. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun, 2022. "Persistence in High Frequency Financial Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 10045, CESifo.
    15. Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Robert Mudida & OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Kazeem A. Osuolale & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, 2021. "Mapping US presidential terms with S&P500 index: Time series analysis approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1938-1954, April.
    16. Alia Afzal & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2021. "Modeling fractional cointegration between high and low stock prices in Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 661-682, February.
    17. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yun Cao, 2011. "Stock market prices in China. Efficiency, mean reversion, long memory volatility and other implicit dynamics," Faculty Working Papers 12/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    18. Luis Alberiko & OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Olarenwaju I. Shittu, 2015. "Fractional integration and asymmetric volatility in european, asian and american bull and bear markets. Applications to high frequency stock data," NCID Working Papers 07/2015, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    19. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Mudida, Robert & Carcel, Hector, 2017. "Shocks affecting electricity prices in Kenya, a fractional integration study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 521-530.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long memory; APARCH; high frequency futures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General

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