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Dual long memory property in returns and volatility: Evidence from the CEE countries' stock markets

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  • Kasman, Adnan
  • Kasman, Saadet
  • Torun, Erdost

Abstract

This paper investigates the presence of long memory in the eight Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries' stock market, using the ARFIMA, GPH, FIGARCH and HYGARCH models. The data set consists of daily returns, and long memory tests are carried out both for the returns and volatilities of these series. The results of the ARFIMA and GPH models indicate the existence of long memory in five of eight return series. The results also suggest that long memory dynamics in the returns and volatility might be modeled by using the ARFIMA-FIGARCH and ARFIMA-HYGARCH models. The results of these models indicate strong evidence of long memory both in conditional mean and conditional variance. Moreover, the ARFIMA-FIGARCH model provides the better out-of-sample forecast for the sampled stock markets.

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  • Kasman, Adnan & Kasman, Saadet & Torun, Erdost, 2009. "Dual long memory property in returns and volatility: Evidence from the CEE countries' stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 122-139, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:10:y:2009:i:2:p:122-139
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohamed Chikhi & Anne Péguin-Feissolle & Michel Terraza, 2013. "SEMIFARMA-HYGARCH Modeling of Dow Jones Return Persistence," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 249-265, February.
    2. El Mehdi, Imen Khanchel & Mghaieth, Asma, 2017. "Volatility spillover and hedging strategies between Islamic and conventional stocks in the presence of asymmetry and long memory," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 595-611.
    3. Rafik Nazarian & Esmaeil Naderi & Nadiya G. Alikhani & Ashkan Amiri, 2014. "Long Memory Analysis: An Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 16-26.
    4. Ng, Andrew Cheuk-Yin & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Chan, Wai-Sum, 2011. "Modeling investment guarantees in Japan: A risk-neutral GARCH approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 20-26, January.
    5. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2017. "The Long Memory of Equity Volatility: International Evidence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-614, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    6. Chkili, Walid & Aloui, Chaker & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Asymmetric effects and long memory in dynamic volatility relationships between stock returns and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 738-757.
    7. Guidi, Francesco & Ugur, Mehmet, 2012. "Are South East Europe stock markets integrated with regional and global stock markets?," MPRA Paper 44133, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2012.
    8. Kang, Sang Hoon & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2013. "Modeling and forecasting the volatility of petroleum futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 354-362.
    9. Chkili, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Volatility forecasting and risk management for commodity markets in the presence of asymmetry and long memory," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-18.
    10. Juan Benjamín Duarte Duarte & Juan Manuel Mascare?nas Pérez-Iñigo, 2014. "Comprobación de la eficiencia débil en los principales mercados financieros latinoamericanos," ESTUDIOS GERENCIALES, UNIVERSIDAD ICESI, November.
    11. Avci-Surucu, Ezgi & Aydogan, A. Kursat & Akgul, Doganbey, 2016. "Bidding structure, market efficiency and persistence in a multi-time tariff setting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 77-87.
    12. Bentes, Sónia R., 2014. "Measuring persistence in stock market volatility using the FIGARCH approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 408(C), pages 190-197.
    13. Michele Caputo, 2014. "The role of memory in modeling social and economic cycles of extreme events," Chapters,in: A Handbook of Alternative Theories of Public Economics, chapter 11, pages 245-259 Edward Elgar Publishing.

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