IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ecm/emetrp/v59y1991i5p1279-313.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Lo, Andrew W

Abstract

A test for long-term memory that is robust to short-range dependence is developed. It is a modification of the R/S statistic, and the relevant asymptotic sampling theory is derived via functional central limit theory. Contrary to previous findings, when applied to daily and monthly stock returns indexes over several time periods this test yields no evidence of long-range dependence once short-range dependence is accounted for. Monte Carlo experiments show that the modified R/S test has power against at least two specific models of long-term memory, suggesting that models with short-range dependence may adequately capture the behavior of historical stock returns. Copyright 1991 by The Econometric Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Lo, Andrew W, 1991. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1279-1313, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:59:y:1991:i:5:p:1279-313
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28199109%2959%3A5%3C1279%3ALMISMP%3E2.0.CO%3B2-8&origin=repec
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    2. Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, "undated". "The Sources and Nature of Long-Term Memory in the Business Cycle," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 05-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    3. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1989. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-209, September.
    4. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-880.
    5. Mandelbrot, Benoit B, 1971. "When Can Price Be Arbitraged Efficiently? A Limit to the Validity of the Random Walk and Martingale Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(3), pages 225-236, August.
    6. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
    7. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    8. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    9. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    10. Billy P. Helms & Fred R. Kaen & Robert E. Rosenman, 1984. "Memory in commodity futures contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(4), pages 559-567, December.
    11. Merton, Robert C., 1985. "On the current state of the stock market rationality hypothesis," Working papers 1717-85., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    12. Greene, Myron T. & Fielitz, Bruce D., 1977. "Long-term dependence in common stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 339-349, May.
    13. White, Halbert & Domowitz, Ian, 1984. "Nonlinear Regression with Dependent Observations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 143-161, January.
    14. Sowell, Fallaw, 1990. "The Fractional Unit Root Distribution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 495-505, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
    2. Bwo-Nung Huang & Chin Yang, 1995. "The fractal structure in multinational stock returns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 67-71.
    3. Ana Pérez & Esther Ruiz, 2002. "Modelos de memoria larga para series económicas y financieras," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 26(3), pages 395-445, September.
    4. Jacobsen, Ben, 1996. "Long term dependence in stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 393-417, December.
    5. Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D., 1997. "Another look at long memory in common stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 373-401, December.
    6. Christian de Peretti, 2003. "Bilateral Bootstrap Tests for Long Memory: An Application to the Silver Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 22(2), pages 187-212, October.
    7. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Nicholas Kilimani & Amandine Nakumuryango & Siobhan Redford, 2014. "Predicting BRICS stock returns using ARFIMA models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(17), pages 1159-1166, September.
    8. Michelacci, Claudio & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2000. "(Fractional) beta convergence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-153, February.
    9. Gil-Alana, L.A., 2006. "Fractional integration in daily stock market indexes," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 28-48.
    10. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "The random walk hypothesis and the behaviour of foreign capital portfolio flows: the Brazilian stock market case," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 369-378.
    11. Gerlich, Nikolas & Rostek, Stefan, 2015. "Estimating serial correlation and self-similarity in financial time series—A diversification approach with applications to high frequency data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 434(C), pages 84-98.
    12. Doyle, John R. & Chen, Catherine Huirong, 2012. "A multidimensional classification of market anomalies: Evidence from 76 price indices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1237-1257.
    13. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2011. "The weekly structure of US stock prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(23), pages 1757-1764.
    14. Cheah Eng Tuck & Lee Yoong Hon, 2008. "A note on the general elections and long memory: evidence from the London Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(5), pages 331-335.
    15. Saadet Kasman & Evrim Turgutlu & A. Duygu Ayhan, 2009. "Long memory in stock returns: evidence from the major emerging Central European stock markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1763-1768.
    16. Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, "undated". "The Sources and Nature of Long-Term Memory in the Business Cycle," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 5-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    17. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    18. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
    19. Dilip Kumar & S. Maheswaran, 2015. "Long memory in Indian exchange rates: an application of power-law scaling analysis," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1-2), pages 90-107, July.
    20. Olan Henry, 2002. "Long memory in stock returns: some international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 725-729.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:59:y:1991:i:5:p:1279-313. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/essssea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/essssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.