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Exchange Rates, Prices and Money: A Long-Run Perspective

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  • de Grauwe, Paul
  • Grimaldi, Marianna

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the long-run proportionality and neutrality propositions between inflation and money growth and between exchange rate changes and money growth. Using a sample of 100 countries over a thirty-year period we find that the evidence in favour of these propositions is weak for the low inflation countries and very strong for the high inflation countries. We propose an explanation based on productivity shocks and transaction costs. Copyright @ 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Suggested Citation

  • de Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2001. "Exchange Rates, Prices and Money: A Long-Run Perspective," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 289-313, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:6:y:2001:i:4:p:289-313
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    1. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    2. Engel, Charles, 2000. "Long-run PPP may not hold after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 243-273, August.
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    6. Glen, Jack D., 1992. "Real exchange rates in the short, medium, and long run," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 147-166, August.
    7. Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-174, March.
    8. Kim, Yoonbai, 1990. "Purchasing power parity : Another look at the long-run data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 339-344, April.
    9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 321-330, December.
    10. Ardeni, Pier Giorgio & Lubian, Diego, 1991. "Is there trend reversion in purchasing power parity?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1035-1055, July.
    11. Kim, Yoonbai, 1990. "Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run: A Cointegration Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(4), pages 491-503, November.
    12. William D. Nordhaus, 2000. "New Data and Output Concepts for Understanding Productivity Trends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1286, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2003. "Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market in a Model with Noise Traders," Working Papers 162003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    2. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2009. "Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 1-11, March.
    3. Slim Chaouachi & Zied Ftiti & Frederic Teulon, 2014. "Explaining the Tunisian Real Exchange: Long Memory versus Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2014-147, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    4. Zied Ftiti & Slim Chaouachi, 2018. "What Can We Learn About the Real Exchange Rate Behavior in the Case of a Peripheral Country?," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(3), pages 681-707, September.
    5. Helmut Herwartz & Hans‐Eggert Reimers, 2006. "Long‐Run Links among Money, Prices and Output: Worldwide Evidence," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(1), pages 65-86, February.
    6. Yihui Lan, 2003. "The Long-Term Behaviour of Exchange Rates, Part II: Aspects of Exchange-Rate Economics," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 03-06, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    7. Hau, Harald, 2002. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Openness: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 611-630, August.
    8. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2014. "Heterogeneity of Agents, Transactions Costs and the Exchange Rate," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 2, pages 33-70, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Stefan Reitz & Ulf Slopek, 2009. "Non‐Linear Oil Price Dynamics: A Tale of Heterogeneous Speculators?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(3), pages 270-283, August.
    10. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2008. "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: A nonlinear microstructural analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 55-76, January.
    11. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2014. "Exchange Rate Puzzles: A Tale of Switching Attractors," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 3, pages 71-117, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Stefan Reitz & Mark Taylor, 2012. "FX intervention in the Yen-US dollar market: a coordination channel perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 111-128, June.
    13. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-390 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Wang, Ying & Tu, Yundong & Chen, Song Xi, 2016. "Improving inflation prediction with the quantity theory," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 112-115.
    15. Hans Genberg, 2002. "Monetary Policy in East Asia (And Elsewhere): Does Targeting Inflation Require 'Inflation Targeting'?," Working Papers 032002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

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