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Beta Risk and Regime Shift in Market Volatility

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  • Don U.A. Galagedera
  • Roland G. Shami

Abstract

In this paper, we relate security returns in the thirty securities in the Dow Jones index to regime shifts in the market portfolio (S&P500) volatility. We model market volatility as a multiple-state Markov switching process of order one and estimate non-diversifiable security risk (beta) in the different market volatility regimes. We test the significance of the premium of the beta risk associated with the different market regimes and find evidence of a relationship between security return and beta risk when conditional on the up and down market movement.

Suggested Citation

  • Don U.A. Galagedera & Roland G. Shami, 2004. "Beta Risk and Regime Shift in Market Volatility," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 126, Econometric Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:126
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038, Elsevier.
    2. Don U. A. Galagedera & Robert Faff, 2005. "Modeling The Risk And Return Relation Conditional On Market Volatility And Market Conditions," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 75-95.
    3. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1992. "Qualitative threshold ARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 159-199.
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    7. Patricia Fraser & Foort Hamelink & Martin Hoesli & Bryan Macgregor, 2004. "Time-varying betas and the cross-sectional return-risk relation: evidence from the UK," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 255-276.
    8. Kodjovi G. Assoe, 1998. "Regime-Switching in Emerging Stock Market Returns," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 2(2), pages 101-132, June.
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    11. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Korkmaz, Turhan & Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Gurkan, Serhan, 2010. "Testing the international capital asset pricing model with Markov switching model in emerging markets," MPRA Paper 71481, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
    2. Turhan Korkmaz & Emrah I. Çevik & Elif Birkan & Nesrin ÖzataÇ, 2010. "Testing Capm using Markov Switching Model: The Case of Coal Firms," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 44-59, January.

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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