IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cir/cirwor/2002s-59.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tests for Breaks in the Conditional Co-movements of Asset Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Elena Andreou
  • Eric Ghysels

Abstract

We propose procedures designed to uncover structural breaks in the co-movements of financial markets. A reduced form approach is introduced that can be considered as a two-stage method for reducing the dimensionality of multivariate heteroskedastic conditional volatility models through marginalization. The main advantage is that one can use returns normalized by volatility filters that are purely data-driven and construct general conditional covariance dynamic specifications. The main thrust of our procedure is to examine change-points in the co-movements of normalized returns. The tests allow for strong and weak dependent as well as leptokurtic processes. We document, using a ten year period of two representative high frequency FX series, that regression models with non-Gaussian errors describe adequately their co-movements. Change-points are detected in the conditional covariance of the DM/US$ and YN/US$ normalized returns over the decade 1986-1996. Nous proposons des procédures pour tester le changement structurel dans les co-mouvements conditionnels d'actifs financiers. L'approche est basée sur la forme réduite et la procédure à deux étapes. L'avantage est qu'on utilise des rendements normalisés par leurs volatilités, une transformation qui peut s'effectuer sans intervention explicite d'un modèle paramétrique. La deuxième étape consiste à tester le changement structurel dans les corrélations conditionnelles. Le papier contient une application empirique avec des taux de changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2002. "Tests for Breaks in the Conditional Co-movements of Asset Returns," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-59, CIRANO.
  • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2002s-59
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cirano.qc.ca/files/publications/2002s-59.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    2. Horváth, Lajos & Kokoszka, Piotr & Steinebach, Josef, 1999. "Testing for Changes in Multivariate Dependent Observations with an Application to Temperature Changes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 96-119, January.
    3. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 99-08, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. Enrique Sentana, 1998. "The relation between conditionally heteroskedastic factor models and factor GARCH models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(RegularPa), pages 1-9.
    5. Nijman, Theo & Sentana, Enrique, 1996. "Marginalization and contemporaneous aggregation in multivariate GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 71-87.
    6. Llubos Pástor, 2001. "The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1207-1239, August.
    7. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
    8. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 909-927, July.
    9. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    10. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2002. "Detecting multiple breaks in financial market volatility dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 579-600.
    11. Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," NBER Working Papers 8554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Engle, Robert F. & Ng, Victor K. & Rothschild, Michael, 1990. "Asset pricing with a factor-arch covariance structure : Empirical estimates for treasury bills," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 213-237.
    13. Jobson, J D & Korkie, Bob M, 1981. "Performance Hypothesis Testing with the Sharpe and Treynor Measures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 889-908, September.
    14. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2000. "Exchange Rate Returns Standardized by Realized Volatility are (Nearly) Gaussian," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 4(3-4), pages 159-179, September.
    15. Meddahi, N & Renault, E., 1996. "Aggregations and Marginalization of Garch and Stochastic Volatility Models," Papers 96.433, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
    16. Engle, Robert, 2001. "Financial econometrics - A new discipline with new methods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 53-56, January.
    17. Eric Ghysels & Andrew Harvey & Éric Renault, 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-49, CIRANO.
    18. Ng, Victor & Engle, Robert F. & Rothschild, Michael, 1992. "A multi-dynamic-factor model for stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 245-266.
    19. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 2002. "Dating the integration of world equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 203-247, August.
    20. Drost, Feike C. & Werker, Bas J. M., 1996. "Closing the GARCH gap: Continuous time GARCH modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 31-57, September.
    21. Bollen, Nicolas P. B. & Gray, Stephen F. & Whaley, Robert E., 2000. "Regime switching in foreign exchange rates: Evidence from currency option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 239-276.
    22. Kokoszka, Piotr & Leipus, Remigijus, 1998. "Change-point in the mean of dependent observations," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 385-393, November.
    23. Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic Volatility," Economics Papers 2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    24. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June.
    25. Andrew Harvey & Esther Ruiz & Neil Shephard, 1994. "Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(2), pages 247-264.
    26. Garcia, Rene & Ghysels, Eric, 1998. "Structural change and asset pricing in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 455-473, June.
    27. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
    28. repec:wop:calsdi:96-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics,in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038 Elsevier.
    30. Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-362, July.
    31. Wouter Denhaan & Andrew T. Levin, 1996. "VARHAC Covariance Matrix Estimator (GAUSS)," QM&RBC Codes 64, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
    32. Diebold, Francis X & Nerlove, Marc, 1989. "The Dynamics of Exchange Rate Volatility: A Multivariate Latent Factor Arch Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, Jan.-Mar..
    33. Foster, Dean P & Nelson, Daniel B, 1996. "Continuous Record Asymptotics for Rolling Sample Variance Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 139-174, January.
    34. Taylor, Stephen J. & Xu, Xinzhong, 1997. "The incremental volatility information in one million foreign exchange quotations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 317-340, December.
    35. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:1:p:122-50 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Andreou, Elena & Ghysels, Eric, 2002. "Rolling-Sample Volatility Estimators: Some New Theoretical, Simulation, and Empirical Results," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 363-376, July.
    37. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1986. "On studentizing a test for structural change," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 341-344.
    38. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:315-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Lajos Horváth, 1997. "Detection of Changes in Linear Sequences," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 49(2), pages 271-283, June.
    40. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Patrick McGlenchy & Paul Kofman, 2004. "Structurally Sound Dynamic Index Futures Hedging," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 80, Econometric Society.
    2. Elena Andreou, 2004. "The Impact of Sampling Frequency and Volatility Estimators on Change-Point Tests," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(2), pages 290-318.
    3. Leonidas Tsiaras, 2010. "Dynamic Models of Exchange Rate Dependence Using Option Prices and Historical Returns," CREATES Research Papers 2010-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Change-point tests; multivariate GARCH models; conditional covariance; high-frequency financial data; Changement structurel; ARCH; corrélations conditionnelles; données de haute fréquence;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2002s-59. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Webmaster). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ciranca.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.